TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$254,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,450 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex60c40,166$23,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,215.692,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked PARIVISION45c31,924$14,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,378.855157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed PARIVISION46c19,175$8,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,766.5633746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9750…263dbacked PARIVISION31c15,060$4,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,680.17616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Yandex59c11,105$6,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,545.6566662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Team Yandex57c9,039$5,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,882.019636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Yandex53c8,292$4,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,890.0286949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Team Yandex66c8,007$5,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,757.8618746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb7b…ed88backed PARIVISION27c7,510$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0041241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION45c7,267$3,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,266.2896557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Yandex54c6,436$3,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.9651751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Yandex57c6,164$3,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,665.8941242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex50c6,001$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,020.551,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Yandex67c5,363$3,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.581,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked PARIVISION55c3,679$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.8653451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a9…3f60backed Team Yandex53c3,425$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,594.692548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed PARIVISION40c3,324$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.0177941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed PARIVISION51c3,239$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.214443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf77c…766dbacked PARIVISION29c2,095$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Yandex54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92080443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Yandex60c1,965$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.942,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION42c1,950$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.9999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Yandex74c1,904$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.718362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Yandex53c1,894$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.4148954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Team Yandex55c1,632$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.63951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Team Yandex62c1,568$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.5715051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed PARIVISION31c1,346$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41538653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed PARIVISION10c1,157$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8250832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Yandex52c1,125$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.6546649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Team Yandex46c1,000$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54433541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7351…b857backed PARIVISION43c966.02$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.392744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f28…a2aabacked PARIVISION53c907.29$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.34425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Team Yandex76c900$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.632652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked PARIVISION16c867.97$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.974452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION35c835.09$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.341,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed PARIVISION16c828.81$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2133645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked PARIVISION22c803.6$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.292056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e3d…bbfabacked Team Yandex52c753.82$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.442748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Yandex72c743.74$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.0652243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…b3b6backed Team Yandex49c709.67$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Yandex57c703.46$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.4636654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Team Yandex44c700$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39211647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed PARIVISION49c697.18$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.6231245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5818…44a3backed Team Yandex51c694.6$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.35728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed PARIVISION44c684.86$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30045046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Yandex52c673.08$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.0857455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Team Yandex63c665.21$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.333845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed PARIVISION45c664.53$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Yandex76c660.04$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.4239660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Yandex73c651.49$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.945061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed PARIVISION7c637.35$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.066132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Yandex80c624.98$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Yandex50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.0635758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked PARIVISION45c597.93$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.0416550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Team Yandex52c584$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.7212454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Yandex51c571.96$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.9444149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed PARIVISION44c570.8$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.7211549.6%57 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked PARIVISION41c565.83$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.027440.5%30 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Yandex56c559.42$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.7753844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Yandex56c558.93$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.931,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Team Yandex55c548.91$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.9124045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Team Yandex62c544$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.3233549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked PARIVISION45c538.69$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2416753.7%36 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked PARIVISION45c534.93$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.461850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62c7…d64fbacked PARIVISION16c531.89$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.287225%18 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked PARIVISION31c509.84$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5140745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed PARIVISION19c507.84$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7351049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Team Yandex76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1202857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed PARIVISION46c499.23$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.9146451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed PARIVISION6c491.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9556548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Team Yandex54c489.99$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.437047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1fe…9878backed PARIVISION43c468.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Team Yandex55c457.14$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.1455457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb69f…d51cbacked Team Yandex55c455.11$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.643964.1%25 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed PARIVISION44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20064149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Team Yandex70c409.24$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.8754753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Team Yandex50c400$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.4814849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Team Yandex75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003658.3%21 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Team Yandex56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17617353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked PARIVISION49c381.41$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18512348%59 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Team Yandex45c360$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.355147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Team Yandex72c357.14$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10011043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9d…9b0ebacked PARIVISION15c352.09$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5231126%81 W · 230 L-17.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked PARIVISION43c340.28$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.328060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked PARIVISION45c337.14$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8413247.7%63 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Team Yandex60c331.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.1214251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed PARIVISION46c330.67$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3115452.6%81 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Team Yandex46c326.08$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0850053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked PARIVISION28c302$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5636851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed PARIVISION46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13897142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb752…cabcbacked Team Yandex55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed PARIVISION37c299.36$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5957654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Team Yandex70c292.75$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2518745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Team Yandex80c287.57$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5119251.6%99 W · 93 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked PARIVISION46c272$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9577458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed PARIVISION29c240.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x782f…b46abacked Team Yandex75c235.41$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.435750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed PARIVISION45c223.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.278251.2%42 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ab9…361dbacked PARIVISION27c221.88$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605230.8%16 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf586…e81bbacked PARIVISION46c216.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100166.3%1 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.33per pick39cpaid-85.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.