NBA · resolved market
76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e99fe8e3e823d09215fcf5123f06519e9a4706073eb5f21b05ab01e532b1e92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,356 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 5,227$2,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773.76 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 3,794$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 47c | 2,114$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.26 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 51c | 2,002$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.76 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Over | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 1,191$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.23 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 53c | 1,104$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.24 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 53c | 1,062$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.86 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 54c | 754$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.16 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 19c | 507.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 497.91$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.14 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 381.03$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7574…9be2backed Under | 46c | 347.83$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.83 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 54c | 321.83$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.79 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 19c | 266.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 19c | 240.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 53c | 218.01$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.55 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 47c | 213.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.32 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…dcaabacked Under | 47c | 188.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.89 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 150.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 149.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Over | 51c | 146.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 44c | 88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 75.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Over | 54c | 66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 42c | 62.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 146 | 34.9%51 W · 95 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 273 | 45.1%123 W · 150 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 46c | 42.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Under | 48c | 41.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 53c | 40.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 33.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 53c | 31.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Over | 54c | 27.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee3…bf37backed Over | 55c | 22.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- 76ers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Bruce Brown: Points O/U 6.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-15.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-16.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.