TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$584,868

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $584,868 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed 76ers48c177,059$84,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,777.3372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed 76ers48c100,369$48,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,170.7587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Nuggets52c100,000$52,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,999.9132653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets52c91,395$47,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,750.554,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Nuggets52c80,000$41,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,40044352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…c2a4backed 76ers47c51,005$24,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,182.54337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Nuggets54c46,067$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,066.9136549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed 76ers46c41,367$19,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,081.0866248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets53c41,005$21,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,409.89,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Nuggets52c34,492$17,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,655.021,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e8a…d340backed 76ers0c26,554$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Nuggets53c24,862$13,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,561.8611457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Nuggets52c24,344$12,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,685.121,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets52c22,109$11,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,539.894,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked 76ers47c21,233$9,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,979.523147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked 76ers48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked 76ers48c17,940$8,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,611.237747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed 76ers48c16,513$7,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,926.2431643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe33f…eed7backed 76ers48c13,761$6,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,605.283943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Nuggets52c12,000$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,759.9558449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed 76ers48c10,833$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20049246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Nuggets53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7008153.1%43 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e9…5c74backed 76ers48c8,173$3,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,922.94650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7088…8b9bbacked 76ers48c8,125$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,900850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Nuggets52c7,512$3,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,605.5418749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked 76ers45c5,547$2,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,513.2524744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f6e…84b4backed 76ers48c4,135$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,984.745349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Nuggets55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80018349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nuggets55c3,860$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.9864651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed 76ers45c3,417$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.612,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f3…b430backed 76ers45c3,387$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.155238.5%20 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Nuggets52c2,002$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9518747.1%41 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Nuggets53c1,879$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.392,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed 76ers44c1,800$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7923,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed 76ers48c1,634$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.3889853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers49c1,559$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.964,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed 76ers48c1,365$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65517953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked 76ers48c1,235$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.83831.6%12 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers45c1,159$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.298,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Nuggets52c1,154$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.9254443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4823…a48bbacked Nuggets52c1,140$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.381275%9 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+51.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Nuggets50c1,035$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.248445.2%38 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed 76ers47c980.37$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.781,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed 76ers49c768.31$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.4742352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets56c703$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.326,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed 76ers48c689.15$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.7936351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…aa15backed Nuggets52c659.62$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.623938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d27…676ebacked 76ers49c612$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8813954%75 W · 64 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Nuggets57c583$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.691,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Nuggets55c549.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.9647651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbc…8a18backed Nuggets52c540$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.24445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x960e…77d6backed Nuggets54c509.26$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.263953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Nuggets51c473.87$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.21,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d84…4b14backed 76ers49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005543.6%24 W · 31 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed 76ers47c406.3$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.093,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Nuggets54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18461957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Nuggets53c379.14$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.22,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Nuggets52c377$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.9623850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Nuggets55c366.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6213154.2%71 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked 76ers47c322.08$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2114634.9%51 W · 95 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked 76ers45c320$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14445646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed 76ers45c314.5$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.532,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ac…03e9backed 76ers49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507948.1%38 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Nuggets52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14425452.8%134 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed 76ers46c279.74$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.532,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab3b…bac1backed 76ers47c263.94$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1233066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Nuggets53c250$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed 76ers46c229$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.515738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Nuggets56c227.98$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3123446.2%108 W · 126 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa2e…b357backed Nuggets53c222.64$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.647433.8%25 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked 76ers49c222.53$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0459250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df2…d357backed Nuggets56c213.09$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.767659.2%45 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 76ers44c205.81$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.245,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Nuggets53c205.1$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1651438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed 76ers47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9415240.8%62 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfca…2db8backed 76ers48c192$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.164837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Nuggets52c190.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4966046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets53c188.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.53,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Nuggets52c184.7$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.957650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d1f…769fbacked Nuggets56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.573582.9%29 W · 6 L+6.2wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Nuggets56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.572433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked 76ers46c173.91$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8013750.4%69 W · 68 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Nuggets53c166.07$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0522048.6%107 W · 113 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5818…39e2backed Nuggets52c165$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.213950.4%70 W · 69 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Nuggets52c165$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.216845.2%76 W · 92 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88ba…b99abacked Nuggets56c164.29$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2910050%50 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked 76ers45c160$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7256547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Nuggets55c160$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked 76ers48c154.35$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0918143.1%78 W · 103 L-12.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91f7…4767backed Nuggets52c154.28$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0610651.9%55 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed 76ers46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed 76ers45c144.92$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2176552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf17e…c12ebacked Nuggets53c140.09$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.844860.4%29 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9fa…b505backed Nuggets53c132.55$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.311244.6%50 W · 62 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa663…1363backed 76ers48c118.6$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.93450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af5…caebbacked Nuggets53c113.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2111850%59 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a2…0020backed 76ers47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.766848.5%33 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Nuggets52c104$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9228243.3%122 W · 160 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked 76ers49c102.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053453.4%285 W · 249 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fcd…f802backed Nuggets53c100.38$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.181050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.