NBA · resolved market
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 24.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc82b216c8747f1dae2dc6c074ec071e333f0f6ede39f441a9f00176d2c72edfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,681 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 55c | 1,383$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.17 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Yes | 44c | 802.19$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.93 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 57c | 611.14$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.79 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe93…3638backed Yes | 45c | 561.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 57c | 438.71$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 146 | 34.9%51 W · 95 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 43c | 404$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 56c | 246$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Yes | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7473…89eebacked Yes | 44c | 149.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 45c | 112.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…6a87backed Yes | 44c | 54.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3c…3206backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 24.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- 76ers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Bruce Brown: Points O/U 6.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-15.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-16.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.