Dota2 · resolved market
LGD Gaming to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f6911a870c45d424d35a0b281045eb58ec16e7e14e94e08deaf56130de72119
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 38c | 2,181$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.82 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 1,516$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.17 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 63c | 1,510$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.76 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Yes | 64c | 1,388$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.81 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 64c | 1,238$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.26 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 34c | 1,097$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.65 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 36c | 1,067$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.53 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…7bbfbacked No | 50c | 858.5$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.89 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Yes | 66c | 707.21$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.45 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 36c | 671.69$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.88 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 658.23$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.57 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…fa98backed No | 7c | 647.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed No | 49c | 524.7$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.1 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 30c | 273.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked No | 36c | 257$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yes | 71c | 240$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed No | 35c | 214.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 50c | 209$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 51c | 197.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…d7dbbacked Yes | 72c | 184.97$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 51c | 172.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked No | 47c | 117.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 51c | 117.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 50c | 111.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Yes | 49c | 101.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Yes | 49c | 98.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Yes | 63c | 92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed Yes | 66c | 70.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 191 | 56%107 W · 84 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4420…5658backed Yes | 59c | 68.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Yes | 53c | 67.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 62c | 61.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 43c | 60.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Yes | 58c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed No | 58c | 52.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 42c | 38.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Yes | 58c | 38.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Yes | 52c | 38.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…1813backed Yes | 51c | 25.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 53c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LGD Gaming to win 2-0?this page
- LGD Gaming vs OG: Draw (1-1)?No won
- OG to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.