Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fc3d072b9774fd516d65f6ec96b5ed99a4419ca54c9529055f9604fd0089473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cobolliof Minaur, Cobolli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7942…b60bbacked Minaur | 65c | 3,245$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Minaur | 59c | 3,000$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Cobolli | 41c | 1,975$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.56 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cobolli | 35c | 1,828$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.32 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c9…f1fabacked Cobolli | 41c | 1,013$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Cobolli | 37c | 599.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.75 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Cobolli | 35c | 494$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.16 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Minaur | 60c | 454.11$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.47 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Cobolli | 40c | 376.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.6 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Cobolli | 36c | 358.76$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.6 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Minaur | 63c | 349.21$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Cobolli | 40c | 247.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.74 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Cobolli | 35c | 240$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Cobolli | 46c | 215.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Minaur | 61c | 204.28$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 79 | 81%64 W · 15 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Minaur | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Minaur | 61c | 109.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Cobolli | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Minaur | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aafbacked Cobolli | 39c | 94.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…8c57backed Cobolli | 45c | 93.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Cobolli | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x538d…55afbacked Cobolli | 38c | 84.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Cobolli | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Minaur | 62c | 72.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Cobolli | 40c | 69.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Cobolli | 37c | 62.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 289 | 47.8%138 W · 151 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Minaur | 63c | 57.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cobolli | 72c | 50.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…2dbabacked Minaur | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Minaur | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -19.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…b4ecbacked Cobolli | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Cobolli | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Minaur | 57c | 25.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Cobolli | 39c | 25.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Minaur | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Cobolli | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Minaur | 62c | 23.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5)this page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Minaur vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Cobolli: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs CobolliCobolli won
- Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs CobolliCobolli won
- Set 3 Winner: Minaur vs CobolliCobolli won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5)Cobolli won
- Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio CobolliFlavio Cobolli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.