Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Cobolli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe66fcde9f6922ee25fd0f3573aad419e3d0b6ce4b6ab94010ae7ca3825b9d46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cobolliof Minaur, Cobolli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf94f…9adabacked Minaur | 61c | 2,139$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Minaur | 68c | 1,598$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.65 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bb…bc01backed Minaur | 67c | 1,415$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.27 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cobolli | 37c | 1,015$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.79 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Cobolli | 32c | 922.68$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.75 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cobolli | 34c | 824$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.84 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Cobolli | 33c | 756.4$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.44 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Cobolli | 37c | 612.47$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.12 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Cobolli | 32c | 600$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…7f98backed Cobolli | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.56 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5de…cabebacked Minaur | 64c | 461.59$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Minaur | 67c | 296.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed Cobolli | 37c | 288.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.65 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minaur | 63c | 265.49$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.71 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f0…61edbacked Minaur | 66c | 247.73$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Minaur | 55c | 238.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.31 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc779…8e4fbacked Minaur | 67c | 202.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Minaur | 66c | 196.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…05b6backed Cobolli | 44c | 153.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…63c2backed Minaur | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Cobolli | 36c | 147.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc5…f88fbacked Cobolli | 40c | 143.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cobolli | 27c | 135$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Minaur | 73c | 125$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Cobolli | 36c | 123.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.11 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Cobolli | 34c | 109.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Minaur | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cobolli | 45c | 97.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Cobolli | 67c | 92.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Cobolli | 33c | 84.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…5a8ebacked Cobolli | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Cobolli | 48c | 43.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1001…0cf1backed Cobolli | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Cobollithis page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Minaur vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Cobolli: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs CobolliCobolli won
- Set 3 Winner: Minaur vs CobolliCobolli won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5)Cobolli won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5)Cobolli won
- Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio CobolliFlavio Cobolli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.