Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs Cobolli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd81cc14a72e8f457f5d75eaf0f55d067def533d90886a47c80dc58c05552587
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cobolliof Minaur, Cobolli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cobolli | 41c | 2,251$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.61 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Cobolli | 39c | 1,797$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.24 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…0acbbacked Minaur | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b0…d5d8backed Minaur | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Minaur | 60c | 600.49$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.97 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a72…17c0backed Cobolli | 45c | 443$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minaur | 59c | 436.86$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.19 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…8f9ebacked Cobolli | 39c | 423.88$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Minaur | 56c | 413.33$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.39 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Cobolli | 74c | 405.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.81 | 385 | 57.1%220 W · 165 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…3c88backed Minaur | 65c | 323.08$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Minaur | 34c | 296.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Cobolli | 41c | 239.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.81 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Cobolli | 38c | 239.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.18 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Minaur | 21c | 236.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5de…cabebacked Cobolli | 49c | 223.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.12 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e93…9145backed Cobolli | 38c | 218.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.13 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Cobolli | 39c | 204.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.83 | 299 | 40.1%120 W · 179 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Minaur | 59c | 201.01$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 171 | 52.6%90 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cobolli | 67c | 183.11$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Minaur | 62c | 169.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Minaur | 16c | 166$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Minaur | 51c | 123.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…4f9dbacked Minaur | 67c | 104.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.53per pick | 66cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Minaur | 34c | 101.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Minaur | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed Cobolli | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…8598backed Cobolli | 42c | 85.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed Minaur | 64c | 84.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…4036backed Cobolli | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Minaur | 69c | 72.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Cobolli | 36c | 67.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Minaur | 62c | 64.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Minaur | 61c | 49.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1001…0cf1backed Cobolli | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Minaur | 63c | 40.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Cobolli | 39c | 33.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed Minaur | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…5316backed Minaur | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba9a…6fbebacked Minaur | 71c | 16.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs Cobollithis page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Minaur vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Cobolli: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs CobolliCobolli won
- Set 3 Winner: Minaur vs CobolliCobolli won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5)Cobolli won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5)Cobolli won
- Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio CobolliFlavio Cobolli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.