Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fe96222df2f48ff873b49409645c0c2ddd9fa5e443b0ac4fbe9e67db267df32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 12c | 642.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 506.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 403.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 324.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 302$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 35c | 289.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 4c | 288.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…8b90backed Yes | 4c | 274.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 36c | 195.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 11c | 179.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 155.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 34c | 149.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 135.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 132.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 129.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 100.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked No | 79c | 96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 33c | 91.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 20c | 72.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 54.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 38c | 39.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 34c | 32.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 31.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 29.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 67c | 23.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 63c | 23.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 66c | 21.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.