Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb03208c904af1b05665069f378b3bb00465aad7f23091f3c4e09d0f71429d6a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 78c | 994.86$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 56c | 675.42$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.74 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 664.69$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 9c | 645.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 586.48$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 529.1$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 36c | 527.07$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.59 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 504$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 426.45$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 402$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 34c | 394.94$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.85 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 70c | 353.16$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.83 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 26c | 345.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.53 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 64c | 304.35$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.78 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 304.27$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 27c | 300.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.28 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 36c | 257.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 4c | 244.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 27c | 216.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.14 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 24c | 194.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.15 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 190.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 178.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked No | 73c | 178.43$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 177.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 175.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 172.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 141.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 35c | 130.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked No | 78c | 127.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 37c | 125.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 124.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 18c | 123.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…d848backed No | 20c | 120.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 29c | 117.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 33c | 112.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 72c | 109.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 33c | 108.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 105$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 36c | 97.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 24c | 97.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 50c | 86.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 42c | 84.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 22c | 80.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 18c | 79.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 29c | 76.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 15c | 75.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 74.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 71c | 70.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 69.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 70c | 60.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e428backed No | 62c | 56.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 55.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 54.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 37c | 54.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 51c | 53.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2923…00a5backed Yes | 38c | 52.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 47c | 51.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 51.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…f85dbacked No | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 37c | 46.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 38c | 43.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 32c | 40.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 33c | 40.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 37.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 66c | 37.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 65c | 37.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 62c | 30.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 43c | 30.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 30.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 39c | 29.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 29.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 28.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…f0b8backed Yes | 45c | 26.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed No | 71c | 26.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.