Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ce03502185dbec1ec91861e67318dc7c3951b9bc9e77a10d4e20739f640628d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 1,080$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 973.17$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.12 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 18c | 857.45$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.19 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 52c | 493.36$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.45 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 37c | 488.13$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.01 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 31c | 444.88$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.13 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 444.56$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 427.46$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.38 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 17c | 423.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.49 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 392$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 57c | 351.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 16c | 310.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 11c | 298.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 15c | 294.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.91 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 17c | 291.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 276.35$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.29 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 261.45$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…3679backed No | 80c | 260$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 257.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 256.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e428backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 30c | 247.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 42c | 230.2$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.23 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 38c | 224.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed No | 46c | 222.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 26c | 220.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 72c | 218.08$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 20c | 213$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 206.51$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 61c | 205.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.29 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 205.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…f85dbacked No | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 175.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.29 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd793…bbd5backed Yes | 50c | 169.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 169.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 45c | 158.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.23 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 76c | 154.07$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 71c | 149.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 148.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 147$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24dc…61afbacked Yes | 41c | 143.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 33c | 137.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 33c | 136.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 55c | 126.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 63c | 126.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked Yes | 22c | 125.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 51c | 119.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2923…00a5backed Yes | 55c | 109.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 17c | 106$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 18c | 100.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b15…e884backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…5368backed Yes | 19c | 99.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 17c | 99.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 99.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 46c | 99.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 77c | 96.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 60c | 92.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 88.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…2533backed Yes | 69c | 86.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 80c | 85.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 72c | 85.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 84.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 42c | 83.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 60c | 79.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 77.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 71.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 43c | 66.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 32c | 65.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 74c | 65.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 43c | 65.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 64.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 34c | 58.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 47c | 56.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 62c | 56.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 40c | 56.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 78c | 56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 47c | 55.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 27c | 54.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 20c | 54.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 54.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 61c | 53.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 32c | 50.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…5704backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.