Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4041db299fb607a5add6b6b5cf9fceb72712405b7bea30d705236f6b91cf6957
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 45c | 584.74$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 66c | 526.77$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 44c | 474.66$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.22 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 453.88$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.16 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 33c | 302.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 300.85$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 294$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 267.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 47c | 248$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.36 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 33c | 239.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.35 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 191.35$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Yes | 31c | 166.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 154.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 154.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 152.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 151.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 141.09$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 33c | 135.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 129.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 121.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 43c | 119$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 118.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 118.42$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 109$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 96.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f2…91cebacked Yes | 19c | 95.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 45c | 93.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 87.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 50c | 75.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 75.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 70.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 26c | 69.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 66.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 61c | 66.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 68c | 56.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 54c | 55.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 53.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 67c | 51.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 48c | 51.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 40c | 47.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 47.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 46c | 47.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 27c | 46.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 44.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 42.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 40.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes | 37c | 40.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 38.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 36.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 36.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…3e5fbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…1e96backed Yes | 73c | 32.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 71cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 32.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed Yes | 36c | 30.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed No | 36c | 28.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 50c | 27.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 26.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 59c | 24.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 78c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 51c | 20.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 58c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 16.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.