TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,373
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,373 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes45c584.74$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2624337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-6.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes66c526.77$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes44c474.66$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.2281558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No42c453.88$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.161,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No33c302.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20326744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c300.85$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.254,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11756048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No55c294$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.2510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes31c267.55$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.96,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No47c248$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.361,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No33c239.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.3574926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No62c191.35$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.632,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef8…a4edbacked Yes31c166.91$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.672416.7%4 W · 20 L-5.5wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-71%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes10c154.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.982,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes46c154.73$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.912,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No32c152.65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.254,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes50c151.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9181855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No64c141.09$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.884,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes33c135.19$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes42c129.69$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c121.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.033,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes43c119$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8113834.8%48 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c118.8$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.745,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No78c118.42$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes43c117$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1647538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes40c109$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.042,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick28cpaid-90.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c96.9$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.775,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f2…91cebacked Yes19c95.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes45c93.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2424141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c90$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No60c87.87$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.452,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No50c75.26$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6380560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c75.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.274,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No18c70.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.861,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9798236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No26c69.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6940862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes53c66.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes61c66.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018555.7%103 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.33,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43be…d8bebacked No68c56.56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.14077.5%31 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4653…fc2bbacked No36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.567061.4%43 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No54c55.02$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3130834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No53c53.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.452,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes67c51.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.561,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked No48c51.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8234831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No40c47.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No48c47.38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.462,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes46c47.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.659144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes27c46.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6854656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes39c44.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.322,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes46c43.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No60c42.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.941,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No51c40.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.042,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes37c40.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No60c38.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.414,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c36.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.029,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No55c36.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eff…3e5fbacked Yes44c34.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152025%5 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-41.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d33…1e96backed Yes73c32.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24520%1 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.51per pick71cpaid-72.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No49c32.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.642,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb106…13f4backed Yes36c30.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.889051.1%46 W · 44 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.74,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed No36c28.38$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.167057.1%40 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No74c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.339573.7%70 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18c3…2a14backed No57c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.042657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No50c27.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.662,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No58c26.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.952,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No42c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bf1…7cb7backed No59c24.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.99169.2%63 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes78c23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.041,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…a96dbacked Yes51c20.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.533043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes54c20.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1119042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed Yes63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.655261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.641752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64557.8%26 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No58c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4843563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No63c16.07$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.980962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No80c13.82$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.761,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.