Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa599a01b04498d779a4122382cab470bea69bef07c30e9ebf55b3cebae92666f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 59c | 674.4$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.4 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 647.41$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 612.77$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 508.85$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.18 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 19c | 507.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.71 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Yes | 19c | 405.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 313.62$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 52c | 299.9$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.78 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…2b65backed No | 43c | 264.68$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 260.55$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 50c | 249.79$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.78 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 48c | 243.28$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.07 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 8c | 234.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 230.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 48c | 200.4$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 54c | 193.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 183.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked No | 36c | 178.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 171.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 171.77$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 38c | 167.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ec01backed Yes | 50c | 158.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 63c | 156.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 24c | 149.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 146.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 118.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 117$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 26c | 115.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 100.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 96.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 93.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 30c | 91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 59c | 89.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 87.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 23c | 85.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 85.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 51c | 83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 77.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 50c | 71.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 55c | 66.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 54c | 65.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 54c | 64.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 48c | 63.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 50c | 58.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 45c | 53.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 51.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 51.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 45.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 45.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 45.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 53c | 43.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 54c | 40.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 55c | 39.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 39.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 35.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e33…6e0cbacked No | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 33.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 31.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 47c | 30.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 50c | 29.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 28.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 52c | 28.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 50c | 27.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 73c | 26.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 52c | 22.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 50c | 22.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 21.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 49c | 21.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 19.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.