TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nongshim Red Forceof Nongshim Red Force, DN Freecs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$239,302
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$305,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,302 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9fe1…4d7fbacked Nongshim Red Force61c60,000$36,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,520.0912161.2%74 W · 47 L+10.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed DN Freecs38c25,485$9,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,706.651,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked DN Freecs39c22,504$8,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,776.455955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed DN Freecs35c15,386$5,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,415.0220438.2%78 W · 126 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…50bcbacked DN Freecs1c7,332$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.21612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked DN Freecs11c7,223$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.291,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed DN Freecs27c6,085$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.6228137.4%105 W · 176 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Nongshim Red Force61c5,216$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.8916034.4%55 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc736…7255backed DN Freecs39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9504953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked DN Freecs27c4,185$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.991,26737.7%478 W · 789 L+35.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed DN Freecs38c4,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.9882452.7%434 W · 390 L+41.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked DN Freecs13c3,473$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.861,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed DN Freecs40c3,430$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3721,01647%478 W · 538 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked Nongshim Red Force62c2,958$1,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.0677654.8%425 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nongshim Red Force66c2,564$1,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.52,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed DN Freecs40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00044047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed DN Freecs37c2,239$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.061,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95cd…cf01backed DN Freecs13c2,222$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2863145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed Nongshim Red Force62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76025269.8%176 W · 76 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked DN Freecs1c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306347.1%45 W · 589 L-1.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed DN Freecs8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601,81339.1%709 W · 1,104 L-30.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16c…d7f4backed DN Freecs14c1,790$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.115848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad3…4e97backed Nongshim Red Force67c1,754$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.997562.7%47 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed DN Freecs40c1,675$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.341,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed DN Freecs38c1,600$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6081,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbca…3b1ebacked DN Freecs13c1,518$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3610535.2%37 W · 68 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3532…3711backed DN Freecs11c1,419$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.993348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee9d…85f1backed Nongshim Red Force61c1,230$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.713056.9%74 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Nongshim Red Force63c1,230$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.071,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Nongshim Red Force61c1,206$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.8253640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Nongshim Red Force61c1,198$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.361,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked DN Freecs25c1,100$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2711,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed DN Freecs36c1,100$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39624147.3%114 W · 127 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed DN Freecs40c1,012$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.81,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed DN Freecs2c999.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202193.2%7 W · 212 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Nongshim Red Force62c971.79$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37082954.5%452 W · 377 L+3.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Nongshim Red Force60c942$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.839851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3911…30f3backed Nongshim Red Force64c936.75$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.2316354%88 W · 75 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Nongshim Red Force62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30476953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x395c…1f55backed DN Freecs38c699.99$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid+21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6db2…1338backed DN Freecs40c699.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed DN Freecs13c691.68$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.11,13130.1%340 W · 791 L-26.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6976…3185backed DN Freecs12c672.24$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.616440.6%26 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Nongshim Red Force61c666.67$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26018433.7%62 W · 122 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0f…fe01backed Nongshim Red Force62c645.16$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.1636260.5%219 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked DN Freecs11c624.88$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9966316.4%109 W · 554 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5db5…5df8backed Nongshim Red Force62c623.46$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.891947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Nongshim Red Force60c582.83$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.1343151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed Nongshim Red Force63c581.51$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.1452750.9%268 W · 259 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed DN Freecs39c550$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.51,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Nongshim Red Force61c541.51$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.1926645.9%122 W · 144 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec9a…ad34backed DN Freecs38c514.86$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19812137.2%45 W · 76 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed DN Freecs34c500$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1713,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58ce…e206backed DN Freecs11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5522852.6%120 W · 108 L+16.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7623…8390backed Nongshim Red Force60c451.67$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.673762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e4…c4b2backed Nongshim Red Force68c441.01$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8926861.6%165 W · 103 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed DN Freecs39c435$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.651,00554%543 W · 462 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed DN Freecs40c430.49$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.685746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1349…dc1fbacked Nongshim Red Force60c416.67$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6711750.4%59 W · 58 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Nongshim Red Force60c410$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16448243.2%208 W · 274 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked DN Freecs39c409$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601,18948.1%572 W · 617 L-2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed DN Freecs6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,06028.5%302 W · 758 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe888…0364backed DN Freecs40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.5wins-0.26per pick50cpaid-51.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed DN Freecs39c400$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15664553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed DN Freecs34c400$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13771249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed Nongshim Red Force61c360$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.468443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Nongshim Red Force71c352.49$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4926453.8%142 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a06…21b8backed DN Freecs41c348.78$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed DN Freecs40c337.5$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351,31055.8%731 W · 579 L+43.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1503…208fbacked Nongshim Red Force79c327.22$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.223943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed DN Freecs25c325.21$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.031,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Nongshim Red Force62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.581,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Nongshim Red Force61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11728843.8%126 W · 162 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68ff…997ebacked DN Freecs37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118842%37 W · 51 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x703f…2921backed DN Freecs31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed DN Freecs39c295$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11619844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked DN Freecs18c286.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.711,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked Nongshim Red Force69c276.79$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0721060%126 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b7c…bfd7backed Nongshim Red Force64c274.35$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.854146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Nongshim Red Force70c271.82$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8215854.4%86 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed DN Freecs13c260.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4840347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed DN Freecs39c250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.530050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1f…df0cbacked DN Freecs40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+41%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed DN Freecs40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed DN Freecs4c250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.751,5203.3%50 W · 1,470 L-54.0wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Nongshim Red Force61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.550547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a9…df50backed Nongshim Red Force59c237.78$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Nongshim Red Force71c222$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3850643.1%218 W · 288 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Nongshim Red Force71c222$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3834742.1%146 W · 201 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2044…734cbacked DN Freecs10c210.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.892025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1976…e363backed DN Freecs17c202.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.745240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9a9…3ba9backed DN Freecs37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7433945.4%154 W · 185 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204e…55eabacked Nongshim Red Force60c200$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796956.5%39 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e86…2db2backed Nongshim Red Force62c190.45$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3724629.7%73 W · 173 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked DN Freecs31c179.32$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9415756.7%89 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f4a…a398backed Nongshim Red Force62c170$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.97433.8%25 W · 49 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed DN Freecs13c168$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5238835.3%137 W · 251 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x968f…2a1fbacked Nongshim Red Force61c164.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6422646.5%105 W · 121 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Nongshim Red Force62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291,05046.1%484 W · 566 L-43.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Nongshim Red Force74c160$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9631439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.