NBA · resolved market
Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41633829b9e53f7f8f1f66518f733accea306c8e96e10e4c8681ccb4e6be2b1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 59c | 2,003$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.39 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 52c | 1,999$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.06 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 48c | 1,750$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Yes | 50c | 970$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 55c | 900$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 50c | 749.98$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.99 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked No | 53c | 451.86$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.15 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 45c | 430.32$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.67 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 55c | 210$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 53c | 200.16$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 110.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 54c | 105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…ada3backed Yes | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 153 | 62.1%95 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Yes | 58c | 91.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed No | 42c | 61.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Yes | 56c | 28.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Yes | 51c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Yes | 52c | 20.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Yes | 51c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802e…76fdbacked No | 80c | 12.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.57 | 58 | 87.9%51 W · 7 L | +13.6wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 3.5this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 4.5No won
- Derik Queen: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Derik Queen: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Jazz vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Jazz vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Pelicans: O/U 243.5Over won
- Spread: Pelicans (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-11.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-7.5)Pelicans won
- Yves Missi: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Yves Missi: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Yves Missi: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.