TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pelicans (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pelicansof Pelicans, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$478,804
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$499,567

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $478,804 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Pelicans46c130,000$60,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,699.8660351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Jazz53c79,985$42,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,391.9636359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Jazz50c62,101$31,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,050.4532653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Jazz56c19,464$10,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,932.294,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz54c18,320$9,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,865.949,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Pelicans45c15,222$6,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,335.5217055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Jazz54c13,614$7,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,351.341,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz63c13,587$8,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,496.238,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Jazz59c13,422$7,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,950.022,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a114backed Jazz54c12,902$6,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,967.053554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Jazz54c12,814$6,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,921.932,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Jazz64c11,386$7,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,264.522,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x162b…3d49backed Pelicans50c11,333$5,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,666.455947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Jazz57c10,930$6,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,230.471,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x267a…79ebbacked Jazz60c10,079$6,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,048.15425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Pelicans47c10,030$4,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,315.891,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Jazz50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b9…6312backed Jazz51c9,516$4,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8537236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Pelicans47c8,537$4,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,524.871,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6bd…3096backed Pelicans50c8,500$4,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,249.857852.6%41 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c77…f4adbacked Jazz51c7,672$3,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,912.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a9a…b270backed Pelicans50c7,371$3,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,685.353100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+79%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Pelicans36c7,163$2,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,584.141,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d73…ef97backed Pelicans50c7,095$3,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,547.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Jazz53c6,761$3,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,586.0326648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Pelicans50c6,123$3,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,061.3224847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Pelicans49c6,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.9916249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Pelicans49c5,766$2,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,940.6615147%71 W · 80 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb212…c63cbacked Pelicans50c5,574$2,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.73977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+57%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed Pelicans49c5,513$2,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,811.627451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Pelicans46c5,396$2,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,890.0813563%85 W · 50 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Jazz63c4,644$2,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,925.9190650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Jazz63c4,620$2,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,911.1363746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans41c4,281$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.392,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb015…eea7backed Pelicans50c4,074$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+63.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Jazz63c3,950$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.371,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Jazz63c3,950$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.371,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Jazz63c3,950$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.3758953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68d8…4cc6backed Pelicans50c3,652$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.5414455.6%80 W · 64 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Jazz58c3,645$2,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,116.332842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Pelicans50c3,622$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.9919359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pelicans46c3,400$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.511,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Pelicans47c2,421$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.8727455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Jazz49c2,384$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.511,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7e3…d750backed Pelicans49c2,345$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.86560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Jazz50c2,288$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.1220945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Jazz60c2,213$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.85446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz55c2,209$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.514,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Jazz52c2,114$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.4437355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Jazz64c2,012$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.9729849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Pelicans47c2,011$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.895651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Pelicans50c1,940$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Pelicans41c1,869$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.3328838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6da6…7d01backed Jazz53c1,834$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.88647.7%41 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa136…ea3cbacked Jazz53c1,834$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.83941%16 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Jazz68c1,812$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.6417651.7%91 W · 85 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Jazz60c1,627$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97611235.7%40 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Pelicans47c1,590$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.824465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe53c…ee05backed Pelicans50c1,368$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.854032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.9wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Jazz49c1,316$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.874748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b78…9992backed Pelicans48c1,280$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.620051.5%103 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Pelicans48c1,251$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.5213946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Jazz54c1,216$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.5358450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Jazz52c1,192$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.6258740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz54c1,191$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.246,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Jazz62c1,162$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.741,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Pelicans47c1,141$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.5130453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Pelicans49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56124450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea4…ea06backed Pelicans50c1,097$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.733956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Jazz49c1,086$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.257647.4%36 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jazz54c1,071$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.142,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Pelicans49c1,052$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.4319745.2%89 W · 108 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab3b…bac1backed Pelicans50c1,034$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.013066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Pelicans47c1,030$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.8257650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Pelicans48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52027746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x419e…4cd4backed Jazz50c989.69$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.84862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Jazz57c974.2$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.292,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Jazz64c893.46$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.3571654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Jazz57c854.56$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.121957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Jazz60c813.82$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.2916743.7%73 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bca…0d11backed Jazz54c807.79$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.2110252.9%54 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fb4…90f3backed Jazz51c761.25$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.249245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Pelicans46c736.45$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.5422552.4%118 W · 107 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Jazz63c625.29$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.097037.1%26 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Pelicans50c616$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30816946.7%79 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked Jazz64c611.67$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.473250%16 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5303…83e6backed Pelicans50c582$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2916647%31 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked Pelicans50c582$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2918450%42 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Jazz55c541.62$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.4981349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Pelicans30c512.51$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.568838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Jazz59c504.27$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.5216845.2%76 W · 92 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Pelicans47c494.22$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.2231354.6%171 W · 142 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Jazz63c481.32$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.5727553.5%147 W · 128 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pelicans40c465.41$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.253,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Jazz63c443.87$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.921,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Pelicans47c428.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.789048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pelicans45c415.93$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2293,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Jazz52c406.91$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.761,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Pelicans49c401.37$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.7124151%123 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Jazz55c400$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.742,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.