NFL · resolved market
Buccaneers vs. Commanders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4184b911bde81c5dec5a972626640ebcd522eb2e47f5dccbf2d77f229d4f6ed9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buccaneersof Buccaneers, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Commanders | 32c | 14,318$4,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,532.77 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Buccaneers | 64c | 10,189$6,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,668.12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Commanders | 27c | 8,857$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,391.52 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Commanders | 37c | 8,115$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.54 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Commanders | 13c | 6,455$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.91 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Commanders | 13c | 5,128$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.5 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Commanders | 36c | 5,107$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.32 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Buccaneers | 62c | 4,550$2,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.53 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Commanders | 37c | 4,000$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.22 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e0…fe50backed Commanders | 34c | 3,500$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.18 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…a205backed Buccaneers | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Buccaneers | 65c | 2,907$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Buccaneers | 63c | 2,762$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.9 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Commanders | 40c | 2,700$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…36d4backed Commanders | 38c | 2,632$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Commanders | 38c | 2,422$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.54 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Buccaneers | 64c | 2,412$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.33 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Commanders | 38c | 1,665$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.69 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Buccaneers | 66c | 1,300$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Buccaneers | 77c | 1,200$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.4 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Commanders | 21c | 1,027$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.04 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…d65dbacked Commanders | 21c | 958.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…2c0bbacked Commanders | 17c | 800$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Buccaneers | 65c | 799.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked Commanders | 13c | 600$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x818d…282cbacked Buccaneers | 63c | 555.31$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +155.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Commanders | 36c | 555$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Buccaneers | 63c | 472.13$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.69 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Buccaneers | 65c | 393$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.55 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Buccaneers | 65c | 358.77$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.13 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Commanders | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Buccaneers | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…0dfabacked Buccaneers | 65c | 287.69$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Commanders | 35c | 251.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Buccaneers | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Commanders | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Commanders | 37c | 189.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…7227backed Commanders | 29c | 172.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Buccaneers | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…c492backed Buccaneers | 65c | 153.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…ba7bbacked Buccaneers | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Buccaneers | 77c | 144.8$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Buccaneers | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Commanders | 27c | 131.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Commanders | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed Buccaneers | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…778ebacked Commanders | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +236.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Buccaneers | 63c | 103.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed Commanders | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…0b70backed Commanders | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked Buccaneers | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Commanders | 23c | 76.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Buccaneers | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Commanders | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…53a1backed Buccaneers | 66c | 72.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0337…61c6backed Commanders | 38c | 64.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f7…d25abacked Commanders | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…d842backed Buccaneers | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Buccaneers | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Commanders | 35c | 37.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…3d63backed Buccaneers | 63c | 35.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Buccaneers | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…d7eabacked Commanders | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…836bbacked Commanders | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Buccaneers | 69c | 27.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 205 | 57.6%118 W · 87 L | +16.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…c676backed Commanders | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Buccaneers | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Buccaneers | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6802backed Buccaneers | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Buccaneers | 65c | 17.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked Buccaneers | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…ee3dbacked Buccaneers | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72d…29afbacked Buccaneers | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.