TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,613
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,613 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f24…64b5backed No0c8,170$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.444040%16 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No1c1,156$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.731,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes56c986.2$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.6765043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c555.19$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.448,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c361.08$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.3717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No27c309.5$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9976755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c300.34$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.2110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No18c295.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5835323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No68c273.65$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.551,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No14c220.46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.192,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No66c210.11$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8337669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No45c178.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.282,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No39c176.98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.021,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes59c169.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6117135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No10c165$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.325,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes71c163.53$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3217241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No39c123$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.295,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed No36c122.07$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0115131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No37c112.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8365353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes77c106.13$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.528134.6%28 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes29c104.76$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.894,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c103.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes40c102.45$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.722932.3%74 W · 155 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes43c102.29$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.323,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes30c101.68$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6810228.4%29 W · 73 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes61c100.7$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.581,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7857545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445832.8%19 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes30c98.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2414025.7%36 W · 104 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes40c93.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.391,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes43c90.66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.481,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No49c90.29$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.342,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c89.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.072,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc06d…6732backed Yes62c78.42$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.582556%14 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes75c76.44$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.155,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No52c76.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes65c76.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3889661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No50c74$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9519057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes31c73.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6793837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No48c72.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No70c71.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes71c71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.812,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No45c70.05$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1865965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No45c70$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.471159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No48c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes37c67.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9346240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No34c66.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.544,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No42c65.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x668b…8900backed Yes64c62.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No28c60.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6df1…3661backed Yes57c59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.144748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885b…4b09backed Yes57c55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdd4…05ebbacked No64c54.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3516354%88 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes56c53.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.24553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No38c52.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed Yes43c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6910636.8%39 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265437%20 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No43c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.41,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.578663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed No42c47.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb8d…0511backed Yes42c47.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.623652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes79c47.4$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2451…09fabacked Yes57c45.73$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7322125.3%56 W · 165 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked Yes58c45.26$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0915722.9%36 W · 121 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No39c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No45c44.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed No25c44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0861929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b99…296bbacked No39c42.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.625825.9%15 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No59c42.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1813755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes32c40.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No45c40.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.151,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes63c39.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5725261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No43c38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.463,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes32c37.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0155538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c35…3f6dbacked No39c36.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.268036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes33c36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1294919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes73c35.68$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6861676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No60c35.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.191,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd297…dcc7backed No57c35.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-63%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0919848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes43c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.852828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes41c34.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5132738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2921…1706backed Yes43c34.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.772450%12 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes55c33.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4081…dfcabacked Yes61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No61c32.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.922,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9e1…7521backed Yes63c31.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.841546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No41c31.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No43c31.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.462,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf70e…3204backed Yes54c27.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.611752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked No40c24.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0614954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No68c24.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7381756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d4…72a7backed Yes63c23.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6c1b…4b83backed No65c23.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.264960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x789d…af8bbacked Yes59c19.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89060%54 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.