Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41975e4ee321f7e80cec798231bf1c805de2c9a4d90bdd97fd8c06d61644dd64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 0c | 8,170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 1c | 1,156$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 56c | 986.2$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.67 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 555.19$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 361.08$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 27c | 309.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 300.34$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 18c | 295.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 273.65$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 14c | 220.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 66c | 210.11$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.83 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 45c | 178.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 39c | 176.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 59c | 169.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 10c | 165$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 71c | 163.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 123$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed No | 36c | 122.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 37c | 112.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 77c | 106.13$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 104.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 103.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 40c | 102.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 102.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 30c | 101.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 61c | 100.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 30c | 98.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 40c | 93.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 90.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 90.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 62c | 78.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 76.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 76.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 65c | 76.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 50c | 74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 31c | 73.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 45c | 70.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 45c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 37c | 67.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 66.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 65.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…8900backed Yes | 64c | 62.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 60.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 57c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…4b09backed Yes | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 64c | 54.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 56c | 53.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 38c | 52.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 42c | 47.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 47.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 57c | 45.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 58c | 45.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 45c | 44.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 39c | 42.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 59c | 42.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 32c | 40.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 45c | 40.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 63c | 39.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 32c | 37.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 39c | 36.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 73c | 35.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 35.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…dcc7backed No | 57c | 35.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 34.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 43c | 34.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 33.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…dfcabacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…7521backed Yes | 63c | 31.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 41c | 31.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 31.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…3204backed Yes | 54c | 27.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 40c | 24.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 24.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d4…72a7backed Yes | 63c | 23.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1b…4b83backed No | 65c | 23.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked Yes | 59c | 19.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.