Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94fa8f0c1b2c7161bb814709f2f3df47c2dd2e86b81dfb3407184c436e3b8ec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 746.1$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 24c | 587.41$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.23 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 37c | 352.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 80c | 312.08$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 259.97$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 198.88$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 23c | 149.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 144$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 64c | 130.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 19c | 123.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 79c | 119$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 118$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 117.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 17c | 117.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 111.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 20c | 109.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 75c | 105.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 40c | 102.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 98.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 96.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 63c | 92.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 86.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 23c | 85.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 81.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 36c | 80.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 67c | 79.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 69.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 23c | 68.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 30c | 68.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…8900backed Yes | 31c | 65.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 59.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…a42bbacked Yes | 24c | 59.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 25c | 54.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked Yes | 22c | 54.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 53.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 74c | 52.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 80c | 51.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 49.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 23c | 48.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 45.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 60c | 41.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 40.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 39.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 61c | 39.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 38.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 37.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 79c | 36.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 73c | 33.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7084…7884backed Yes | 40c | 31.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf1…23a8backed No | 74c | 31.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 27.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 27.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 73c | 25.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 58c | 25.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b9…3d3bbacked No | 80c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 40c | 25.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 42c | 24.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 24.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 69c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed No | 75c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 61c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 57c | 18.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 60c | 17.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c40…fcf2backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.