TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,590
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,590 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f20…12c3backed No26c543.68$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.814,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No6c442.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6134624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a72…9d77backed No35c419.58$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.583745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes51c394.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.184445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c340.96$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.772,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes48c268.87$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.881,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c248.91$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No56c228.48$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes39c208.78$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.1165043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No37c208.22$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.543,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes70c202.04$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.395,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No47c190$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.984,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No34c188$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.765,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No51c185.75$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3460523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes48c181.02$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.9925239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes39c174.62$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.7662137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes47c171.82$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.867,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No60c169.49$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.31,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No40c167.02$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.042,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes54c166.52$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1931442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed Yes55c166.43$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes65c154.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.217135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb89b…1a22backed Yes67c148.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.889783.5%81 W · 16 L+26.5wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+58.5%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No14c144.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.957,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc53a…625fbacked No23c135.47$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.98257.3%47 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes47c130.55$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No14c123.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.761,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c113.78$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.359,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes78c113.46$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1929520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No25c108.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.271,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes48c104.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5737835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes35c103.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4714040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes47c103.59$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.291,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked Yes49c99.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5241460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No53c97.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4967158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No61c97.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.342,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No62c96.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0526067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c94.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No31c94.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2126958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8850…d68dbacked No52c94.33$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.31947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes54c93.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.421346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No39c82.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.382,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No21c80$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.711,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No36c79.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.513,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ddd…a1d6backed Yes50c78.67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.27933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No53c78.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes50c77.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.381,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes47c74.9$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.341,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No61c73.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1397570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No29c71.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.724,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No45c69.02$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0649646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes73c67.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.491,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes36c67.28$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.284,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No55c62.57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…a4d5backed No57c52.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.75666.1%37 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes73c51.9$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.011,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1143842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes37c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c49.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.893,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No63c49.95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4744646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes48c49.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7110642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes48c48.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbff…06d2backed Yes53c47.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.189932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No54c46.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes51c45.83$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3942130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda58…4e79backed Yes46c43.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.282441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes35c42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4964333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No52c40.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3712758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8211637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed Yes58c40.13$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.711926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.123,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1428946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ae…3f4bbacked Yes56c39.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.692352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No31c39.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4339159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22dd…8246backed Yes51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes64c39.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0630919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes54c36.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.919137.4%34 W · 57 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No54c34.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5747136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f0b…8202backed Yes49c34.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5110441.3%43 W · 61 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes73c34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.184271.4%30 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes58c32.87$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8589544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9119848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes49c31.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.878067.5%54 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes46c30.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6130652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No62c30.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8752571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f5a…bc49backed Yes77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.95549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.33,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.44963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8580050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes70c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9925946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe168…f375backed Yes51c29.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.694731.9%15 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.