Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b53239376f5c0b4e44adf2a4d323e73ad92ee0825782b933216f363bd7ad3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Spirit, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed Team Spirit | 25c | 11,379$2,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,835.11 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Falcons | 57c | 4,952$2,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.5 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed Team Spirit | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed Team Falcons | 79c | 3,779$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.43 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Team Spirit | 42c | 3,342$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.44 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1034…b26dbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 3,154$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.98 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…7f98backed Team Falcons | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…cfbabacked Team Falcons | 55c | 2,349$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Team Falcons | 57c | 2,281$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.7 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Team Spirit | 46c | 2,162$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.5 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Spirit | 34c | 1,669$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.31 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Team Falcons | 57c | 1,243$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…3d8abacked Team Spirit | 27c | 1,102$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Spirit | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Team Falcons | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Spirit | 38c | 707.86$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.75 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Spirit | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Spirit | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Spirit | 43c | 584.74$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.74 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c61…470fbacked Team Spirit | 40c | 509.78$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Team Spirit | 22c | 443.77$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons | 57c | 442.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.11 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Team Spirit | 34c | 420.07$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.36 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Team Spirit | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…92a5backed Team Spirit | 20c | 393$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons | 53c | 367.46$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.98 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b6…ebb8backed Team Falcons | 57c | 332.45$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb499…148dbacked Team Falcons | 48c | 310.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 282.85$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…69c9backed Team Falcons | 64c | 226.82$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Team Spirit | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Team Falcons | 58c | 211.41$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d99…3d7dbacked Team Spirit | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Falcons | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Team Spirit | 43c | 196.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Team Spirit | 28c | 190.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Team Spirit | 55c | 183.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…f42fbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 180.75$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons | 56c | 178.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7c…644fbacked Team Spirit | 57c | 174.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…a8cbbacked Team Spirit | 61c | 163.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Spirit | 28c | 160$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Team Spirit | 35c | 157$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb943…b538backed Team Falcons | 68c | 156.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…3cc4backed Team Falcons | 70c | 154.93$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…bdd3backed Team Falcons | 56c | 139.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…107dbacked Team Spirit | 44c | 121$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…29d6backed Team Spirit | 24c | 108.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…9646backed Team Falcons | 73c | 102.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0e…49fcbacked Team Spirit | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Spirit | 46c | 84.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…a1e9backed Team Spirit | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 77.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…3f04backed Team Spirit | 48c | 77.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…f2f1backed Team Falcons | 57c | 73.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Spirit | 50c | 73.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Team Spirit | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Team Falcons | 63c | 69.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1314…1c80backed Team Falcons | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Team Falcons | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…d0edbacked Team Falcons | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b33…c931backed Team Falcons | 71c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…6632backed Team Spirit | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…0b10backed Team Falcons | 79c | 45.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…3d85backed Team Spirit | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9738…4401backed Team Falcons | 65c | 38.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169d…73f6backed Team Spirit | 29c | 35.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Team Falcons | 76c | 17.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.