CS2 · resolved market
BLAST Bounty: OG vs. MOUZ
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41d3e6d35adc2f58716e1641ea82a9be292f236b8ad717b3afdbeb98075b7985
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof OG, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked OG | 18c | 10,443$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.57 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed OG | 15c | 9,898$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.77 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed OG | 18c | 7,794$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.26 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed OG | 17c | 4,117$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.68 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed OG | 16c | 2,844$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.42 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed OG | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…e646backed MOUZ | 67c | 1,700$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed MOUZ | 67c | 1,492$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.36 | 602 | 48.7%293 W · 309 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked OG | 26c | 1,310$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.56 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed OG | 11c | 1,137$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.17 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked OG | 10c | 1,127$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked MOUZ | 80c | 1,000$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…d54ebacked OG | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed OG | 19c | 999.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed OG | 25c | 790.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 38.1%40 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked OG | 8c | 643.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed OG | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed OG | 14c | 331$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked MOUZ | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked MOUZ | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked MOUZ | 79c | 230.19$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…350cbacked OG | 24c | 212.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked OG | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed OG | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed MOUZ | 66c | 187.82$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x107a…4bc4backed OG | 17c | 179.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7752…445dbacked MOUZ | 78c | 166.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed MOUZ | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed MOUZ | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 377 | 52%196 W · 181 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed MOUZ | 73c | 116.54$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…a00ebacked OG | 21c | 114.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed OG | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…e4f4backed MOUZ | 79c | 76.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…8230backed MOUZ | 73c | 75.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed OG | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed OG | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked MOUZ | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed OG | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked OG | 29c | 47.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…fc52backed MOUZ | 70c | 29.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1671…b758backed MOUZ | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…204ebacked MOUZ | 75c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…d8bebacked MOUZ | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.