Commodities · resolved market
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41f5d14a0277e53f3e76ce39922d7e2a0c028bcec2cc4be23e7f730767e956c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bd4…c1c2backed Up | 2c | 2,955$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed Down | 27c | 2,618$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.35 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 28c | 1,425$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 70c | 1,186$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.27 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed Up | 71c | 1,050$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 37c | 623.1$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.94 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 47c | 400$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Down | 26c | 400$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Down | 39c | 300$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…089fbacked Up | 25c | 223.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Down | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Up | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Down | 25c | 188$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Down | 34c | 179.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.78 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…a738backed Up | 11c | 150.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Down | 28c | 145$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…48a7backed Down | 64c | 120.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Down | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked Down | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Up | 37c | 90.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Down | 61c | 84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Up | 54c | 83.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Down | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed Up | 65c | 65.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…bc3bbacked Up | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Down | 21c | 51.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc58…7894backed Up | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Down | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…8c09backed Down | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…9943backed Down | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…cc22backed Up | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…966fbacked Down | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked Up | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Down | 79c | 49.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…7adabacked Down | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Down | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…dc97backed Up | 76c | 32.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…fd1dbacked Up | 69c | 31.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Up | 75c | 29.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a0…e80bbacked Down | 37c | 28.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.