Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x425d01941aef8a9258412a77df6f59743f45e43b00d92e7e88db399468b55041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 32c | 1,163$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.57 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,051$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.98 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 518.98$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 455.34$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 360.81$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 277.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 37c | 270.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 218.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 34c | 216.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 68c | 186.95$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 36c | 179.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 179$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 176.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 171.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 167.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 63c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 67c | 149.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 68c | 143.58$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 135.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 129$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 124.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 64c | 120.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 41c | 109.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 100.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2228…e009backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 99.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 99.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…a3a5backed Yes | 35c | 97.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 73c | 94.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 89.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 88.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 86.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 86.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 86.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 80.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 78.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…24dcbacked No | 65c | 76.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 72.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 72.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked No | 68c | 69.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 68.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 68.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 75c | 65.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 33c | 65.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 31c | 63.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 62.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 24c | 61.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 31c | 56.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 65c | 55.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 55.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 55c | 52.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 66c | 52.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 44c | 50.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 63c | 49.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 24c | 49.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 24c | 48.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 41c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 65c | 45.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 38c | 44.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 28c | 43.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 68c | 42.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 63c | 41.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 73c | 41.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 75c | 40.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 25c | 40.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 37.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 36.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 74c | 36.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 35c | 35.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…48b0backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b6…3120backed Yes | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 76c | 29.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 28.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 28.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 28.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 27.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 80c | 25.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.