Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cabbc6e2c0affde9381557b296fb500615335912282ee6dce83b2d3158157d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 56c | 2,241$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.3 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 762.31$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.46 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 563.46$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 29c | 454.09$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.09 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 5c | 424.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf3…4807backed No | 64c | 408.34$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.8wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 25c | 400.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.14 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 323.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 307.98$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 286.13$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 36c | 252.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.25 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.04 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 194.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 71c | 161.89$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.57 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 54c | 146.12$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 138.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 77c | 130.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 126.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 126.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 44c | 124.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…3592backed Yes | 39c | 123.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 121.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 111.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 30c | 106.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 102.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 95.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…a3a5backed Yes | 33c | 94.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 92.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 91.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 49c | 91.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 91.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 42c | 90.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 87.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…d1a2backed Yes | 37c | 85.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 83.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 80.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 78.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 46c | 78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 77.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 75.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 71.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 47c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 73c | 60.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 58.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 59c | 55.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 55.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 38c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 43c | 52.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2228…e009backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 37c | 49.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 44.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 62c | 42.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3c…4929backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 35c | 39.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed No | 29c | 39.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 77c | 39.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 52c | 38.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 40c | 38.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 46c | 37.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba2…dc7ebacked Yes | 31c | 37.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 65c | 36.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 37c | 36.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 61c | 35.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 57c | 34.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 35c | 31.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 63c | 31.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 39c | 31.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…bd5abacked No | 66c | 30.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 30.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…57c7backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 80c | 28.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 55c | 26.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 80c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 25.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 23.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.