Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lyon vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42ee2943bcefffba8e56dc2b2b01d660a5ded131ac885d34853add968ceb2b6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99ae…e398backed No | 72c | 9,999$7,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,199.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…88dabacked Yes | 28c | 9,999$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,199.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…68eebacked No | 1c | 5,687$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 28c | 2,511$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.98 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9e97backed No | 72c | 2,149$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 30c | 1,667$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 28c | 1,249$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 27c | 1,020$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.76 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 70c | 860.02$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.01 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 19c | 816.76$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.82 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 72c | 797.25$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.02 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 25c | 750.77$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.33 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…4402backed No | 71c | 750$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 70c | 687.98$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.59 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…7123backed Yes | 29c | 680$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed No | 3c | 550$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked No | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 31c | 358.24$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.25 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…0834backed Yes | 30c | 237.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aee…b3e3backed Yes | 28c | 233.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 31c | 222$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.68 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 53c | 209.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86dc…94a1backed No | 42c | 189.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Yes | 29c | 189.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…6575backed Yes | 29c | 180$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe634…7a95backed Yes | 78c | 162.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…f698backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 28c | 96.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…8b88backed No | 73c | 89.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Yes | 31c | 88.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 69c | 86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 69c | 86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4661…aca4backed No | 72c | 85.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed Yes | 69c | 83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…9ce3backed Yes | 44c | 77.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…9788backed No | 72c | 76.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc14…e34cbacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac26…d79cbacked No | 73c | 73.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4d2bbacked No | 72c | 72.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…0972backed No | 74c | 68.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…a328backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…316abacked Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56f…3914backed Yes | 46c | 63.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 69c | 59.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 71c | 57.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +31%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…c3f5backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 70c | 52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…95c7backed No | 71c | 50.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…4d07backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +232%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 70c | 40.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed Yes | 71c | 40.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 30c | 38.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c476backed Yes | 30c | 35.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 31.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…bb18backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…279dbacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…1775backed Yes | 80c | 21.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…5f4dbacked No | 70c | 19.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e3…38f3backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…a888backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyon vs. Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Lyon win on 2025-04-10?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.