Dota2 · resolved market
Team Spirit to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43132003f0117e0610f401e3e7cbcaecfa150b3a8deb1e2f6a724290e842f4e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 71c | 6,501$4,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890.43 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked No | 29c | 5,797$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…7e7ebacked No | 35c | 2,051$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.53 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 21c | 1,424$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.38 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 14c | 1,350$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.5 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked No | 16c | 1,160$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.77 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 15c | 629.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Yes | 68c | 597.21$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.43 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 12c | 595.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked No | 34c | 536.04$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.99 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Yes | 73c | 510.44$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.97 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 73c | 445.06$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 76c | 409.26$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 28c | 397.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.43 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed No | 28c | 349.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 76c | 276$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 63c | 252.79$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 232.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d731backed No | 19c | 218.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Yes | 72c | 171.88$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb603…c701backed No | 30c | 168.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 80c | 157$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Yes | 72c | 141.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Yes | 73c | 134.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 20c | 57.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 73c | 56.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 42c | 43.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 27.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…bcb1backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Yes | 71c | 19.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Yes | 71c | 14.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Team Spirit to win 2-0?this page
- Team Spirit vs Team Nemesis: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.