World Politics · resolved market
Will François Briançon be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x438a6b49de654f6915e87cb441764beee5ac78d1d0a3ae3a09d794f7cc595a3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,149 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd058…c532backed No | 57c | 74,990$42,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,095.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee7…d07abacked Yes | 43c | 74,988$32,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,094.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 1,598$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 69c | 714.25$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.96 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xac77…c15ebacked Yes | 46c | 433.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 49c | 414.24$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.12 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 307.19$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.05 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…9a1abacked Yes | 47c | 297.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…6276backed Yes | 56c | 296.17$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 15c | 281.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7388…2887backed Yes | 43c | 259.01$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 27c | 214$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…9a00backed Yes | 59c | 212.87$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 20c | 185.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 54c | 158.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 157.57$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 63c | 104.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 47c | 96.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 80c | 69.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 46c | 61.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 49c | 59.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 53c | 59.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 53.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd72f…69f3backed Yes | 50c | 50.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 29c | 46.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d2…b3febacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked No | 62c | 39.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…ab20backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8235…e6f6backed Yes | 66c | 30.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c4…ac70backed Yes | 54c | 27.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will François Briançon be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?this page
- Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?No won
- Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.