MLB · resolved market
Red Sox vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x443943434711cb8cf4380839291dc784ad23b007338b3d612ec04e1d8b95d11c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Red Sox, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Red Sox | 44c | 14,514$6,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,442.94 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Red Sox | 37c | 8,930$3,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,334.96 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…4b9bbacked Red Sox | 53c | 5,556$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,944.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b21…26d5backed Royals | 47c | 5,519$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,925.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c5…71ccbacked Red Sox | 53c | 5,308$2,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,813.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4576…e33cbacked Royals | 47c | 5,121$2,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,714.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Royals | 51c | 3,674$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.79 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Royals | 61c | 3,020$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.6 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Royals | 53c | 2,667$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.97 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Red Sox | 51c | 2,214$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.37 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Royals | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…4efebacked Red Sox | 51c | 1,499$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.53 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Red Sox | 54c | 1,448$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.85 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Red Sox | 52c | 1,284$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.47 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Royals | 48c | 1,042$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.55 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Red Sox | 46c | 1,013$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.89 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Royals | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Royals | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…26a2backed Red Sox | 28c | 704.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Royals | 68c | 521.41$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.85 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 48c | 506.36$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.31 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Red Sox | 52c | 500$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Red Sox | 50c | 497$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Red Sox | 25c | 464.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Red Sox | 53c | 452.17$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.13 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ba…0627backed Royals | 74c | 406.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Royals | 71c | 400$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Red Sox | 6c | 339.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals | 47c | 333.75$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.86 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Red Sox | 39c | 300.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Red Sox | 43c | 252.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Royals | 74c | 230.5$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Royals | 60c | 210.22$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Royals | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Royals | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Royals | 57c | 189.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Royals | 50c | 181.61$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Royals | 49c | 156.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Red Sox | 50c | 153.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Red Sox | 35c | 145.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Royals | 51c | 140.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Royals | 48c | 104.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…7480backed Red Sox | 52c | 100.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Red Sox | 50c | 98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…d5d7backed Royals | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Royals | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Royals | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Royals | 49c | 54.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Royals | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a95…2d06backed Red Sox | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Royals | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals | 48c | 49.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 51c | 49.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…5aa5backed Red Sox | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3c…6bdcbacked Royals | 48c | 47.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5efc…ee80backed Red Sox | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…f71abacked Royals | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1971…c2c4backed Royals | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Royals | 52c | 36.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Royals | 61c | 31.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Red Sox | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed Red Sox | 51c | 22.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Red Sox | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Royals | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.