TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$663,231
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$755,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $663,231 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 485 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora57c75,734$43,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe11c…c7f7backed Aurora0c68,210$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.219140.7%37 W · 54 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked BetBoom Team45c43,833$19,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,146.38847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora60c28,750$17,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,357.9680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Aurora59c25,359$14,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,873.832948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked Aurora39c20,866$8,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,2004951%25 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked BetBoom Team46c19,406$8,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,408.5417948.6%87 W · 92 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed BetBoom Team44c16,418$7,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,155.2536248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked BetBoom Team43c15,000$6,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,5253647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed BetBoom Team41c14,062$5,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,295.0231248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora56c13,000$7,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,279.9733746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Aurora58c11,929$6,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,942.1313558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed BetBoom Team44c11,578$5,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,482.7956955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked BetBoom Team41c11,172$4,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,603.731,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed Aurora56c10,087$5,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,648.546139.3%24 W · 37 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x076e…73fabacked Aurora0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed BetBoom Team44c9,137$4,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,116.8715848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed BetBoom Team49c9,105$4,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,633.8640051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed BetBoom Team39c8,916$3,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,463.3843344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed BetBoom Team42c8,824$3,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,155.466051.7%31 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed BetBoom Team46c8,230$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,429.6696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked BetBoom Team44c8,000$3,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,492.3189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Aurora62c7,035$4,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,331.9661456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed BetBoom Team44c7,000$3,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,93029348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Aurora63c6,231$3,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,94312557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed BetBoom Team44c5,699$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,193.7841351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked BetBoom Team71c5,577$3,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.0777458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Aurora60c5,469$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,300.4611753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed BetBoom Team40c5,275$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,164.9842650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked BetBoom Team43c5,019$2,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,858.6510833.3%36 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Aurora54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70018351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Aurora56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed BetBoom Team38c4,990$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,093.6869644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed BetBoom Team43c4,574$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,607.156541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc7e…08fdbacked Aurora53c4,457$2,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,364.16837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team58c4,449$2,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,851.011,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed BetBoom Team40c4,000$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.5655147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora56c3,750$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.9953764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed BetBoom Team46c3,596$1,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.9369132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked BetBoom Team53c3,510$1,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.5496645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed BetBoom Team42c3,500$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.993327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-26.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed BetBoom Team39c3,313$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.2445139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Aurora47c3,195$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010743%46 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Aurora32c3,062$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.8441242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed BetBoom Team42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,74015144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74fc…a0bdbacked Aurora57c3,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.461442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd2…f5c4backed Aurora56c2,810$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.787864.1%50 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed BetBoom Team44c2,742$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,544.2477941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team55c2,689$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.342,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed BetBoom Team43c2,614$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.9825248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d23…fcdfbacked Aurora40c2,592$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.651225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-46.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked BetBoom Team41c2,582$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.743049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed BetBoom Team41c2,427$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.0130336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa95b…0d14backed Aurora52c2,292$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.961050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed BetBoom Team49c2,285$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.5127153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Aurora52c2,209$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.4811552.2%60 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x254b…e8abbacked BetBoom Team44c2,128$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.681258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed BetBoom Team44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1203562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Aurora56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.9911647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Aurora48c1,977$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.9230138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x433c…81eabacked BetBoom Team43c1,957$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.41546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed BetBoom Team42c1,955$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.1329240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc62d…74fcbacked BetBoom Team52c1,917$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.915251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed BetBoom Team44c1,844$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.5835151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x468c…d7cabacked BetBoom Team54c1,831$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.473764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Aurora59c1,796$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.825359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked BetBoom Team73c1,773$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.3126956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad4d…dd89backed Aurora36c1,733$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.137736.4%28 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Aurora58c1,730$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00313442.5%57 W · 77 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed BetBoom Team54c1,676$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.568459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed BetBoom Team44c1,625$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.2525444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Aurora60c1,622$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.8949455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked BetBoom Team59c1,579$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.4977256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed BetBoom Team44c1,526$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.35650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+81%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Aurora59c1,500$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.14332.6%14 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BetBoom Team45c1,488$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.861,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3914…3db9backed Aurora20c1,336$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.031850%9 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2469…4812backed Aurora11c1,310$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked BetBoom Team42c1,271$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.5225752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Aurora56c1,250$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed BetBoom Team40c1,200$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora60c1,195$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.0360349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked BetBoom Team45c1,191$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.2786659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BetBoom Team53c1,186$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.711,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e6f…7248backed Aurora57c1,122$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.382347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf917…bde0backed BetBoom Team35c1,115$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.483161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Aurora61c1,111$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.717742.9%33 W · 44 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked BetBoom Team54c1,099$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.1550850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora42c1,087$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.651,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Aurora51c1,014$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.8747748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BetBoom Team55c1,011$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.081,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Aurora48c1,004$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.8512146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ab…eb07backed BetBoom Team40c1,001$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.697846.2%36 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ff…906cbacked Aurora61c1,000$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.315961%36 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed BetBoom Team42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55db…8db6backed BetBoom Team65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3503360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a01…7650backed Aurora1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ed…c1e5backed Aurora48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Aurora57c999.98$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.9950769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed BetBoom Team43c999.98$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.992552%13 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.