Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45026a1cb1dfc4671ea8c626fcd054c9dd34de9f329e82ecc40131f0f5927b72

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,794 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x703b…1956backed Yes	5c	11,908$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.02	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed No	75c	11,513$8,594 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,919.06	71	50.7%36 W · 35 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Yes	26c	9,496$2,469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,468.95	158	43%68 W · 90 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No	72c	2,786$1,995 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$791.14	188	48.9%92 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5f…1695backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	372	23.9%89 W · 283 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	4c	1,424$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7264…8121backed Yes	26c	1,140$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302	75	28%21 W · 54 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	74c	990.78$735 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.8	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No	70c	923.15$642 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.02	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4eb…7ba3backed Yes	22c	918.41$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	65	33.8%22 W · 43 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes	30c	801.04$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	350	36.3%127 W · 223 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd255…bbcabacked Yes	4c	666.67$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf927…94b5backed Yes	30c	666.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	608	21.9%133 W · 475 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38c…371ebacked Yes	4c	417.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	201	33.8%68 W · 133 L	+14.0wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes	20c	279.39$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.49	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa8f…fd07backed Yes	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	48	33.3%16 W · 32 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4a…1604backed Yes	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a68…ad4cbacked Yes	27c	249.05$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.24	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e6d…08a8backed Yes	23c	217.68$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	125	27.2%34 W · 91 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0326…3daebacked Yes	58c	212.36$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.5	190	31.6%60 W · 130 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	79c	189$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.91	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc82…5af0backed Yes	30c	167.22$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	309	28.8%89 W · 220 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf170…d9eabacked Yes	20c	125$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba34…32b8backed Yes	36c	123.89$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	261	51.7%135 W · 126 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd1…bf74backed Yes	28c	116.26$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.57	118	23.7%28 W · 90 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98a3…9024backed Yes	26c	111.69$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e8…5289backed Yes	45c	110.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcac9…b4bbbacked Yes	16c	101.66$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.88	57	35.1%20 W · 37 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65fa…389fbacked Yes	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3900…fb4ebacked Yes	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	237	29.5%70 W · 167 L	-11.0wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdc2…b720backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x554e…cd79backed Yes	19c	99.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a51…9c22backed Yes	20c	90$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6583…17e7backed Yes	61c	82.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f4a…8c99backed Yes	25c	79.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-43%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f76…9798backed Yes	35c	72.34$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	182	43.4%79 W · 103 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x605a…bf3bbacked Yes	26c	70$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.43	200	36.5%73 W · 127 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a4e…d20dbacked Yes	28c	66.43$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8704…566cbacked No	76c	66.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	65	84.6%55 W · 10 L	+11.4wins	+0.18per pick	67cpaid	+29%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1101…dfd5backed No	66c	65.99$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.44	277	32.5%90 W · 187 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.14	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc0…a921backed Yes	26c	58.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	165	42.4%70 W · 95 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ae…1399backed Yes	21c	57.42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-4.2wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-37%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bee…2188backed Yes	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8e…22ebbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00d9…764abacked Yes	34c	44.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb2e…e1f2backed Yes	47c	42.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	63.1%41 W · 24 L	+8.0wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x450d…b4edbacked Yes	48c	41.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	28.6%14 W · 35 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…6e17backed Yes	29c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	213	62%132 W · 81 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf71d…85cebacked Yes	26c	39.42$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-3.3wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x726a…196bbacked No	59c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.4	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+5.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0cad…73a5backed Yes	40c	27.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ca…4419backed No	72c	27.72$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.71	81	70.4%57 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	75cpaid	-5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb294…a9f4backed No	73c	23.15$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.31	62	61.3%38 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event