Fifa International · resolved market
Rayan: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff9d8b529429633e88e0d5d8699b99dd833ca60909816c7d8060b809da8072d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 76c | 2,151$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.96 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Yes | 24c | 2,118$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.38 | 362 | 50%181 W · 181 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…f1f3backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 75c | 166$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…1dfbbacked No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 22c | 141$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 350 | 36.3%127 W · 223 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…78b2backed Yes | 25c | 141$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8693…cc0dbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 73c | 103.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…9e9abacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 78c | 69.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…b720backed Yes | 27c | 66.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…8567backed Yes | 30c | 66.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 72c | 57.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 572 | 52.4%300 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 272 | 42.3%115 W · 157 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…7b08backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 70c | 47.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 379 | 59.1%224 W · 155 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed6a…aeb9backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 76c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayan: 1+ goalsthis page
- Endrick: 1+ goalsNo won
- Endrick: 2+ assistsNo won
- Gabriel Martinelli: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goalsNo won
- Luiz Henrique: 5+ shotsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ goalsYes won
- Matheus Cunha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ goalsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 1+ goalsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 2+ shotsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 3+ goalsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 3+ shotsNo won
- Rayan: 1+ assistsYes won
- Scott McTominay: 1+ assistsNo won
- Scott McTominay: 1+ goalsNo won
- Scott McTominay: 1+ shotsYes won
- Scott McTominay: 2+ goalsNo won
- Scott McTominay: 2+ shotsYes won
- Scott McTominay: 3+ shotsYes won
- Scott McTominay: 5+ shotsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goalsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goalsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shotsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.