NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45a8d4d6477783816ea5cd87d23d91a95ca30d95e15749e1662e51a5a481c18d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Capitals, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Lightning | 58c | 55,834$32,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,442.71 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Capitals | 42c | 50,000$21,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,000 | 425 | 52.2%222 W · 203 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Lightning | 59c | 46,154$27,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,925.35 | 216 | 52.3%113 W · 103 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Capitals | 42c | 36,240$15,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,220.8 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Lightning | 58c | 35,637$20,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,967.55 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Capitals | 41c | 33,710$13,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,820.99 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Capitals | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Lightning | 59c | 7,437$4,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,055.87 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Capitals | 33c | 5,995$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.41 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Capitals | 41c | 5,032$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Capitals | 42c | 3,619$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Capitals | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lightning | 69c | 2,868$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.76 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Lightning | 59c | 2,264$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.4 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Capitals | 29c | 2,226$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.94 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Lightning | 54c | 2,100$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Lightning | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Lightning | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.67 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Capitals | 41c | 1,808$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.72 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Capitals | 41c | 1,674$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.42 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lightning | 63c | 1,338$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.13 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Capitals | 40c | 1,330$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.1 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Capitals | 29c | 1,265$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.38 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Capitals | 41c | 1,226$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.77 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Capitals | 41c | 1,191$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.92 | 540 | 47.6%257 W · 283 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Capitals | 41c | 1,167$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.24 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Lightning | 65c | 1,130$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.6 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 63c | 1,038$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.32 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Capitals | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Capitals | 26c | 990.11$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.43 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…a1e9backed Capitals | 28c | 941.08$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.15 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning | 58c | 798.87$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.45 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Capitals | 28c | 750$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 198 | 36.9%73 W · 125 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Capitals | 41c | 721$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.61 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Capitals | 35c | 617.45$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.51 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Lightning | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Capitals | 35c | 557$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.04 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Capitals | 41c | 534.51$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.15 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Capitals | 41c | 515$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.15 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Capitals | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Lightning | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Capitals | 41c | 488$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Lightning | 59c | 320$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Lightning | 58c | 299.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97da…d63bbacked Lightning | 58c | 245$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 202 | 49.5%100 W · 102 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Capitals | 41c | 244.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Capitals | 47c | 240.43$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 369 | 48%177 W · 192 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Capitals | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 749 | 51.8%388 W · 361 L | +18.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…2decbacked Capitals | 41c | 215$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Capitals | 22c | 212.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Capitals | 38c | 211.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Capitals | 24c | 200.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 132 | 41.7%55 W · 77 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…c23bbacked Capitals | 28c | 196.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Capitals | 42c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lightning | 80c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Capitals | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Capitals | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Capitals | 41c | 134.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Lightning | 60c | 122.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lightning | 59c | 121.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Lightning | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Lightning | 76c | 109.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 167 | 66.5%111 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb4…48bbbacked Capitals | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Capitals | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,220 | 46.1%562 W · 658 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Capitals | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c29…5e43backed Capitals | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…ffaabacked Lightning | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 119 | 47.9%57 W · 62 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Capitals | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Lightning | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…303dbacked Lightning | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 220 | 51.4%113 W · 107 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Lightning | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 309 | 51.1%158 W · 151 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed Capitals | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216c…5a7fbacked Lightning | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Capitals | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…b4e6backed Lightning | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…1f62backed Lightning | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 250 | 50.4%126 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7608…292bbacked Capitals | 40c | 58.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Capitals | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Lightning | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Capitals | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Capitals | 41c | 49.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…6313backed Capitals | 41c | 49.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…ab1ebacked Capitals | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Lightning | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 1,079 | 54.3%586 W · 493 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ea…7b92backed Lightning | 60c | 46.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…061bbacked Lightning | 60c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…3f20backed Capitals | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Capitals | 43c | 37.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1,354 | 52.6%712 W · 642 L | +46.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Lightning | 75c | 37.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 799 | 56.1%448 W · 351 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Lightning | 59c | 36.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038a…4302backed Lightning | 60c | 35.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cc…c9b0backed Capitals | 41c | 35.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed Lightning | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Capitals | 41c | 33.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Capitals | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked Lightning | 57c | 29.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…39f8backed Lightning | 60c | 29.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…4496backed Lightning | 60c | 27.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…9815backed Lightning | 60c | 26.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…bfc1backed Lightning | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Lightningthis page
- Capitals vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.