Fifa International · resolved market
Paraguay leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45b79109719909d7a5b787f25ebf7fd0f90f43fac9872a605d410f364792b3d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $280,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 16c | 65,925$10,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,740.84 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 9,249$4,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,036.86 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 9c | 5,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,005 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,139$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,924.01 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed No | 8c | 4,609$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.72 | 421 | 26.4%111 W · 310 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 10c | 4,347$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,911.9 | 716 | 38.4%275 W · 441 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…4781backed Yes | 5c | 3,999$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,799.05 | 525 | 22.5%118 W · 407 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 3,589$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.26 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked No | 47c | 3,281$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.6 | 350 | 34.3%120 W · 230 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f4…b38ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,052$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.38 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 44c | 1,958$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.31 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…17c5backed No | 10c | 1,786$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.27 | 334 | 38.6%129 W · 205 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Yes | 8c | 1,726$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.27 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec0…9bddbacked Yes | 77c | 1,718$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.85 | 626 | 33.9%212 W · 414 L | -28.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51cf…106cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.67 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed No | 5c | 1,460$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 372 | 42.5%158 W · 214 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…96e1backed No | 11c | 1,421$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.17 | 258 | 21.3%55 W · 203 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,377$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.42 | 744 | 47.8%356 W · 388 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…30fcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,134$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.3 | 220 | 32.3%71 W · 149 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…655cbacked No | 9c | 952.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 536 | 29.9%160 W · 376 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Yes | 66c | 928.46$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.13 | 594 | 53.4%317 W · 277 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 4c | 905$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 350 | 35.7%125 W · 225 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 10c | 900$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 350 | 36.3%127 W · 223 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed No | 2c | 764.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 460 | 12.4%57 W · 403 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 8c | 730.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.1 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 6c | 602$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 363 | 35.8%130 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 41c | 594.7$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.82 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed No | 6c | 531.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 8c | 514$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 351 | 36.8%129 W · 222 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb70…be84backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 64 | 14.1%9 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e41…3745backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 32c | 468$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +25.9wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +129%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 65c | 455.2$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.54 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d7…22a5backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.55 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…95eabacked Yes | 6c | 443$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.42 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ec…1481backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.57 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…c83cbacked No | 15c | 401.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 362 | 34%123 W · 239 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd62…6c34backed Yes | 80c | 388.55$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 7c | 387.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.57 | 512 | 28.9%148 W · 364 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 6c | 386$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 335 | 38.8%130 W · 205 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…4e15backed Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 13c | 304.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 455 | 36.9%168 W · 287 L | -26.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3e76backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 15c | 293.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 695 | 34.8%242 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 11c | 292.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 217 | 49.8%108 W · 109 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330a…0e45backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.71 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…5af0backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.73 | 309 | 28.8%89 W · 220 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ae89backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…61f9backed Yes | 6c | 227.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.27 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 7c | 227$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 361 | 39.1%141 W · 220 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaec…32a1backed Yes | 11c | 220$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 294 | 30.3%89 W · 205 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f62…1239backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…6bf6backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 339 | 37.5%127 W · 212 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 326 | 39%127 W · 199 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffd…d98bbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 51c | 178.35$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 171.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked No | 18c | 159.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 981 | 34.8%341 W · 640 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebd…7db6backed Yes | 11c | 145.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 8c | 137$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 174 | 32.8%57 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…0098backed Yes | 10c | 122$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +13.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…d362backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…80d4backed Yes | 11c | 109.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…9a3ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 300 | 32.3%97 W · 203 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…ceedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc337…5984backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 196 | 18.4%36 W · 160 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40b…9ab4backed Yes | 54c | 95.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed No | 11c | 93.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 234 | 43.6%102 W · 132 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked No | 12c | 88.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +16.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 340 | 35%119 W · 221 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 21c | 58.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 425 | 54.4%231 W · 194 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 77c | 38.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 208 | 56.7%118 W · 90 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 44c | 31.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paraguay leading at halftime?this page
- Germany leading at halftime?No won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.