MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45c828407dbfc708aa65de27261cc81e198070ea064c3815a522eecf841e6121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f85…d62cbacked Yes | 41c | 5,276$2,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,113.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…e7c0backed Yes | 41c | 5,068$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,990.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…d7f0backed No | 59c | 1,800$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…12dfbacked No | 59c | 1,795$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922a…e5eabacked No | 59c | 1,658$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…1be2backed No | 59c | 1,658$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f18…5ed2backed No | 59c | 1,646$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd319…964dbacked No | 59c | 1,639$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed No | 8c | 1,341$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed No | 61c | 599.51$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.7 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Yes | 39c | 568.16$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.58 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 20c | 476.72$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.63 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 56c | 367.62$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.87 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Yes | 33c | 328.57$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.14 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +597.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed No | 4c | 294.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…92c3backed No | 62c | 163.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Yes | 60c | 152.23$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed No | 63c | 138.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.51 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -8.4wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 21c | 131.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked No | 8c | 128.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 59c | 127$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 17c | 112.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 34c | 103.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 37c | 103.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 65c | 87.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed No | 76c | 73.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Yes | 17c | 60.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…c9ecbacked No | 79c | 50.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed No | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…a265backed No | 79c | 39.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 65cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 41c | 27.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Yes | 41c | 25.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked No | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 473 | 48.8%231 W · 242 L | -22.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed No | 62c | 18.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Piratesthis page
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh PiratesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.