NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45db7ea8c896f3654c6696bba38c98abef79f815c6c9956c9f30cb46a6e0f0ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Pistons, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6368…6dc8backed Pistons | 58c | 6,805$3,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,947.02 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Magic | 42c | 3,804$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,204.61 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Magic | 42c | 3,528$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.47 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Pistons | 57c | 850.37$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Magic | 43c | 380$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.6 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Magic | 43c | 320$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bb…bc01backed Pistons | 58c | 314.15$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.21 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Pistons | 58c | 252.1$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.22 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Magic | 50c | 247.38$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.16 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43c…e9e8backed Magic | 39c | 247.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.81 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Magic | 42c | 205.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Pistons | 50c | 205$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pistons | 57c | 198.49$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Pistons | 55c | 158.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Magic | 37c | 155.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.37 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Magic | 36c | 149.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Pistons | 73c | 134.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.37 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +15.3wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Pistons | 56c | 125.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Pistons | 54c | 119.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Pistons | 69c | 118.32$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Pistons | 61c | 117.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Magic | 47c | 116.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Magic | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 241 | 59.8%144 W · 97 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Pistons | 32c | 95.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 221 | 70.6%156 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Magic | 15c | 89.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Magic | 46c | 84.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 224 | 42.9%96 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…b8c8backed Magic | 46c | 83.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Magic | 44c | 77.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Pistons | 48c | 72.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Magic | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 279 | 42.7%119 W · 160 L | -14.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Pistons | 64c | 67.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…a1f1backed Pistons | 57c | 63.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…8ea1backed Magic | 66c | 59.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2c4fbacked Magic | 36c | 52.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…8d44backed Magic | 63c | 49.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…875abacked Pistons | 57c | 48.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Magic | 55c | 44.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…73debacked Pistons | 41c | 34.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 137 | 44.5%61 W · 76 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Magic | 41c | 33.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Magic | 34c | 33.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382f…9404backed Pistons | 59c | 32.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Pistons | 65c | 32.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf7…4307backed Pistons | 40c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Magic | 49c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Pistons | 57c | 23.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Magic | 61c | 23.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pistons | 78c | 21.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Pistons | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Magic | 55c | 19.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 667 | 32.4%216 W · 451 L | +41.8wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Magic: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Magic won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Pistons vs. MagicMagic won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 213.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Magic won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.