NBA · resolved market
Jalen Duren: Points O/U 15.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd08ad96d39bd07a3f0715e7fb7f4d4aefe18cf37f8428d26584dbb00da1cfde0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 53c | 3,293$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.97 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Yes | 47c | 2,902$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 51c | 999.67$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.84 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Yes | 50c | 788.94$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.91 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked Yes | 49c | 484.69$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.37 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 56c | 446$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.24 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 55c | 437.85$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.03 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Yes | 44c | 409.15$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.03 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 55c | 401.05$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.46 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Yes | 46c | 391.57$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.89 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked No | 47c | 379.86$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.33 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Yes | 48c | 348.86$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.01 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 46c | 340.03$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.42 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed No | 56c | 300$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 51c | 260$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 43c | 201.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Yes | 53c | 110.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Yes | 46c | 106.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked No | 28c | 95.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 51c | 89.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Yes | 46c | 63.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Yes | 46c | 63.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 52c | 21.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 15.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Magic won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Pistons vs. MagicMagic won
- Pistons vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 213.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Magic won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.