Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45df7919d3c323dd60d148d968c51881239ee652543c0fc08e6afa72c384ae5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 58c | 6,900$3,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,969.07 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Over | 46c | 6,471$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,471.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.97 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 2,299$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.85 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 1,700$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 34c | 1,072$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.18 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9db…a30ebacked Under | 78c | 800.7$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Under | 79c | 789.65$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 48c | 657$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.64 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 22c | 333.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.21 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Under | 52c | 312.04$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 46c | 265.89$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Under | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Over | 48c | 240.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…7365backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…3539backed Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Under | 55c | 90.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under | 51c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 47.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…8de5backed Over | 24c | 41.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 66c | 30.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Under | 52c | 25.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked Under | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 48c | 22.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Under | 75c | 16.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)Racing Club de Lens won
- Toulouse FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Toulouse FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.