TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,382 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5085…9bbcbacked Knicks56c298.21$167 inLost-$16710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder44c241.87$106 inWon+$135.452,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Knicks48c140$67 inLost-$67.238242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Thunder52c140$73 inWon+$67.23,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Knicks49c117.24$57 inLost-$57.455,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5da…ff1dbacked Thunder51c117.24$60 inWon+$57.452937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Knicks50c100$50 inLost-$503,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62da…2fdabacked Thunder50c100$50 inWon+$504557.8%26 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60e3…c767backed Thunder50c56.34$28 inWon+$28.1711553%61 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.