NBA · resolved market
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0267d7af3377ee7670d6885d92dbd39e2b8e4b3d2e40590b7194ffd6333c78d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,696 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 67c | 9,709$6,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,226.31 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 32c | 8,304$2,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,687.49 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 67c | 2,705$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.94 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes | 36c | 2,439$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.41 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 52c | 1,767$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.22 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 64c | 940$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.51 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…ed19backed No | 54c | 799.99$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked No | 48c | 775.58$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.29 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 489.74$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.37 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 58c | 474.9$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.42 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…008fbacked Yes | 39c | 385.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -67%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 67c | 302.96$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 55c | 281.1$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.49 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 53c | 261.02$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 37c | 175.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -14.1wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed Yes | 64c | 157.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…2262backed Yes | 37c | 149.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b8…76f2backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 70c | 114.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 60c | 110.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…3792backed Yes | 26c | 98.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 57c | 78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 60c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Yes | 41c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c03…a424backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…4b69backed Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 50c | 25.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 45c | 24.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed No | 50c | 23.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 342 | 48.8%167 W · 175 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…7528backed No | 59c | 22.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -11.0wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84b4…8702backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Knicks won
- Thunder vs. KnicksThunder won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: O/U 223.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.