NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb756fa1ac875f541b0aabf1275391bc79bab16874a06e9858c17f7d891afdbf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,474 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf05…291bbacked Knicks | 45c | 12,000$5,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,345.28 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 56c | 9,178$5,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,038.13 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Thunder | 60c | 3,484$2,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.83 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Knicks | 44c | 3,216$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder | 56c | 2,817$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.29 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108b…ecdabacked Knicks | 43c | 2,286$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…727fbacked Thunder | 55c | 1,272$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Knicks | 37c | 1,250$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.5 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Knicks | 28c | 1,101$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.04 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Thunder | 55c | 1,042$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.77 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed Thunder | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…8c87backed Thunder | 74c | 929.14$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4008…2942backed Knicks | 46c | 417.82$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Thunder | 58c | 348.33$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder | 56c | 300$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Thunder | 56c | 290.17$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Thunder | 56c | 260$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…7ba2backed Thunder | 67c | 247.07$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Thunder | 73c | 207$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Thunder | 53c | 165.69$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Knicks | 44c | 138.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Knicks | 42c | 130.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Thunder | 77c | 130.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…a103backed Knicks | 45c | 111.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Thunder | 56c | 86.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…0ec7backed Thunder | 55c | 30.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Thunder | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Thunder | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Thunder | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Thunder | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Thunder | 62c | 16.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Knicks: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Knicks won
- Thunder vs. KnicksThunder won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Knicks: O/U 223.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.