MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46617d79dd636fd920d5f94e5284b158a49ef8c6c4c79c13cb10ca4ad622015e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 3,350$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.56 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 2,606$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 1,569$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.91 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,034$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.1 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 1,013$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.99 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 978.69$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.9 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 873.16$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 584.31$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.35 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 446$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.48 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd65c…9a48backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 239.36$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 164.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…4b32backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 160.94$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 141.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 131.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2d…5116backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 129.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 126.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 124.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 97.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 87.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 80.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…9a00backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Minnesota Twins | 73c | 69.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…5a3ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69f…e36bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 53.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 51.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 49.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 47.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 44.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 43.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 43.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 34.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 30.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 30.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Minnesota Twins | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Minnesota Twins | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 23.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.