MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23173469ab810e81eef5cb5b013fe1cd7bb5269526791378bcfe76d28b3ae227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 55c | 40,162$21,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,934.28 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 25,545$11,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,938.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 47c | 3,462$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,826.53 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 45c | 3,227$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.85 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 44c | 2,093$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.67 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 50c | 1,792$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.32 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Under | 54c | 1,126$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.93 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Over | 46c | 1,012$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.6 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 47c | 920.25$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.78 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 792.89$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 599.97$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 47c | 420.4$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.59 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 52c | 376.47$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.59 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 357.8$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Over | 39c | 309.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 53c | 301.97$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.93 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 46c | 280$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97e…dff7backed Under | 45c | 223.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 47c | 212.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 51c | 132.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed Over | 48c | 127.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…daecbacked Under | 54c | 120.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked Under | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 83.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 57c | 76.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 79c | 76.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 35c | 64.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Over | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 52.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Under | 42c | 50.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 58c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 45c | 43.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 45c | 40.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b48…1d20backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 54c | 31.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 54c | 27.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 45c | 24.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Under | 54c | 23.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…1052backed Over | 47c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Under | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.