Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US Trade Deficit be between $70 billion and $80 billion in June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x467af7e6cf83f53640e74c625a57dcd38ef1fe3e26f029bdfdb164d5663e98eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 63c | 2,457$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 902.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd261…9205backed Yes | 52c | 689.48$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 57c | 432.69$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 9c | 425.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 37c | 354.4$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 38c | 300$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed No | 24c | 260.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 30c | 215.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 37c | 206$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 37c | 206$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 38c | 203.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 6c | 188.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 73c | 149.01$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 107.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 104.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 42c | 83.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 76.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 37c | 75.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 62.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 53c | 56.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x894c…1c16backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4777…1e79backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb1…09c8backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdc…f5e4backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…079bbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcc…160abacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 36c | 36.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 40c | 30.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…7379backed Yes | 64c | 30.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f6…bc90backed No | 46c | 27.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 45c | 23.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…11fdbacked Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8e…2175backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US Trade Deficit be between $70 billion and $80 billion in June 2026?this page
- Will the US Trade Deficit be between $60 billion and $70 billion in June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.