NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x468a5a0d3c2d5f0a3dd073b18c99ff0cbdeb2648b22bf1f4bf4873918de09890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.97 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 1,593$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.62 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe169…4653backed Over | 53c | 1,368$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.96 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 1,072$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 58c | 980.67$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.88 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 58c | 657.27$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.15 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 43c | 578$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.65 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 57c | 332.41$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.94 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 57c | 332.41$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.94 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 58c | 326.88$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.29 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 58c | 326.88$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.29 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 58c | 326.88$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.29 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 193.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.18 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Over | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Over | 51c | 151.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…8c95backed Under | 45c | 146.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88b…976cbacked Under | 45c | 146.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Under | 49c | 146.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 43c | 136.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 45c | 128.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 126.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2464backed Under | 50c | 116.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 110.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Over | 52c | 63.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Under | 43c | 60.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 166 | 42.2%70 W · 96 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Over | 52c | 30.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 49c | 29.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 51c | 28.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 46c | 28.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Over | 57c | 19.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 53c | 19.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5this page
- Pelicans vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.