TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,774
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,774 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Pelicans59c82,663$48,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,769.9636549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Timberwolves41c78,110$32,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,084.6466248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Timberwolves49c9,943$4,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,071.11,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pelicans51c6,818$3,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,490.081,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves49c6,260$3,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,212.569,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Timberwolves50c6,240$3,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,133.791,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Pelicans52c3,737$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.4438946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Pelicans53c3,548$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.4630446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pelicans51c2,892$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.684,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Timberwolves50c2,598$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.8490650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Pelicans43c2,593$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.671,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Timberwolves50c2,574$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.7832351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Pelicans54c2,411$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.7170246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Pelicans51c1,903$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.68756.3%49 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Pelicans54c1,770$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.9214940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Timberwolves48c1,672$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.2763746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pelicans51c1,562$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.654,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Timberwolves44c1,382$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.4521653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans52c1,324$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.46,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Pelicans38c1,275$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.811,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Pelicans56c1,143$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.821,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pelicans42c1,142$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.722,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pelicans47c1,139$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.613,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans50c1,079$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.395,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Timberwolves47c1,056$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.8762051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Pelicans55c973$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.1524450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Timberwolves51c894.01$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.7471654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Timberwolves51c883.08$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.571,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Timberwolves47c809.66$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.122,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd63…cf21backed Timberwolves46c769.47$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.631952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Pelicans35c703.73$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.7810239.2%40 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Timberwolves47c604.42$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Timberwolves48c599.5$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.7484150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Pelicans49c586.44$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.5289850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Timberwolves50c388$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19426755.1%147 W · 120 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Timberwolves41c365.85$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.851,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Pelicans53c330.05$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9217349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Pelicans50c325.15$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.5838947.6%185 W · 204 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Timberwolves59c323.14$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6758953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Timberwolves59c321.34$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8710447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Pelicans57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.733360.4%201 W · 132 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Pelicans53c291.54$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5244345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Timberwolves50c291$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.515055.3%83 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Pelicans51c285.47$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5936248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Timberwolves47c265.03$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.331,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Pelicans47c250$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.52,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pelicans48c249.46$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.823,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Pelicans50c219.71$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.861,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa3…7e2ebacked Pelicans52c209.14$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.681241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Pelicans51c200.01$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.121,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Timberwolves59c199.1$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0352461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Timberwolves50c194$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9749852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5741…fb99backed Timberwolves56c190.36$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2410945.9%50 W · 59 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Pelicans51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0666046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fca…e8edbacked Pelicans12c189.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.735738.6%22 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Pelicans57c171.82$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.41,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8138…1052backed Timberwolves52c151.74$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.229454.3%51 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cb…9b76backed Timberwolves49c150.97$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe711…3dd2backed Pelicans55c141.19$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8512855.5%71 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Pelicans44c137.26$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.681,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Timberwolves52c119.2$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.12,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Timberwolves47c102.23$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8111653.4%62 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Timberwolves49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0497049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pelicans50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Timberwolves54c97.24$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.731,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Timberwolves55c96.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.698846.6%41 W · 47 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Timberwolves49c96.94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.445356.6%30 W · 23 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Pelicans51c95.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5338152.8%201 W · 180 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Pelicans13c94.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.334255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Pelicans41c88.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9960049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pelicans50c86.17$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.293,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Pelicans22c83.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7827245.6%124 W · 148 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Timberwolves59c82.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.897646.1%35 W · 41 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Pelicans39c77.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.761,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa938…3bc3backed Pelicans52c75.2$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.843330.3%10 W · 23 L-7.7wins-0.23per pick54cpaid-46.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Timberwolves51c71.73$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.431,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked Pelicans50c66.48$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2423348.1%112 W · 121 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef56…b743backed Timberwolves45c62.04$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Timberwolves49c59.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2711850.8%60 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90aa…5f6cbacked Timberwolves51c58.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5421849.5%108 W · 110 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9a2…27a0backed Timberwolves50c58.2$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.17350.7%37 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4533…e6bbbacked Timberwolves43c56.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.014148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed Timberwolves44c55.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7939448.7%192 W · 202 L-1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Timberwolves54c54.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8557051.9%296 W · 274 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Pelicans55c53.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.431,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Timberwolves45c53.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3137853.4%202 W · 176 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Pelicans38c49.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.816020%32 W · 128 L-27.0wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-42.7%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Timberwolves57c48.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.951,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Timberwolves49c47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.971,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Pelicans51c39.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.381,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Timberwolves51c39.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.399655.2%53 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Timberwolves50c38.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.459650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Timberwolves59c37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1778639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b0e…3a70backed Timberwolves50c36.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4315053.3%80 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1d1…6b2cbacked Timberwolves50c34.65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.327149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Pelicans44c33.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8452861.9%327 W · 201 L+32.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pelicans51c30.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.382,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked Timberwolves49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.36663.6%42 W · 24 L+8.8wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbf2f…1b25backed Timberwolves55c29.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.172653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b9d…bbf6backed Timberwolves45c27.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.