NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x860b5d3c5e47b8e06d643fc52e3ec9c0358e7dba8e648739e1107cb66ef46c39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Timberwolves, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pelicans | 33c | 6,090$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,068.66 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Timberwolves | 61c | 4,982$3,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,043.57 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Timberwolves | 68c | 2,201$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.85 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 43c | 1,574$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Timberwolves | 50c | 455.49$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pelicans | 67c | 345.67$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Timberwolves | 16c | 315.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pelicans | 79c | 281.81$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Timberwolves | 26c | 266.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pelicans | 50c | 254.14$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Pelicans | 62c | 247.08$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Timberwolves | 50c | 243.15$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.29 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Timberwolves | 27c | 220$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Pelicans | 54c | 180.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 133 | 42.9%57 W · 76 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Pelicans | 48c | 180.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Pelicans | 53c | 178.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 272 | 45.6%124 W · 148 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Timberwolves | 48c | 148.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Timberwolves | 55c | 138.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Timberwolves | 44c | 130.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Timberwolves | 48c | 127.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Timberwolves | 49c | 125.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Timberwolves | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Pelicans | 52c | 124.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 520 | 53.3%277 W · 243 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Timberwolves | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Timberwolves | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Timberwolves | 40c | 113$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5718…24d4backed Pelicans | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Timberwolves | 68c | 99.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Pelicans | 52c | 99.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Timberwolves | 51c | 99.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Timberwolves | 38c | 97.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…b5b8backed Pelicans | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Pelicans | 52c | 97.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 90.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pelicans | 61c | 89.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Timberwolves | 67c | 86.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Pelicans | 56c | 83.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Timberwolves | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Timberwolves | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 138 | 37.7%52 W · 86 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Timberwolves | 59c | 70.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Timberwolves | 37c | 62.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Pelicans | 54c | 60.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 592 | 55.4%328 W · 264 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Timberwolves | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Timberwolves | 35c | 54.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Timberwolves | 43c | 51.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Timberwolves | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 469 | 59.1%277 W · 192 L | +28.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pelicans | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pelicans | 43c | 46.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Timberwolves | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Pelicans | 72c | 41.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Timberwolves | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Timberwolves | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Timberwolves | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pelicans | 59c | 37.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…6039backed Timberwolves | 38c | 35.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Pelicans | 39c | 34.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Pelicans | 49c | 34.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 68 | 76.5%52 W · 16 L | +12.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Timberwolves | 47c | 23.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Timberwolves | 68c | 22.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 21.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.