Tennis · resolved market
National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Katherine Sebov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46a53d6e5f7e4401400d984b276679dd5b3546732c4fe89aa353d5cd30bfee64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marta Kostyukof Marta Kostyuk, Katherine Sebov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Marta Kostyuk | 80c | 18,036$14,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,635.71 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Katherine Sebov | 13c | 12,298$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.93 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a1…bf4bbacked Katherine Sebov | 23c | 10,417$2,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.83 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Katherine Sebov | 14c | 10,388$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.36 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Katherine Sebov | 20c | 8,454$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.68 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Katherine Sebov | 10c | 7,600$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.64 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Katherine Sebov | 4c | 5,970$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.71 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…878dbacked Katherine Sebov | 14c | 5,770$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f4…b38ebacked Katherine Sebov | 9c | 3,697$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Katherine Sebov | 6c | 3,279$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Marta Kostyuk | 77c | 2,699$2,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.4 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Katherine Sebov | 14c | 2,297$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.86 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Marta Kostyuk | 77c | 2,183$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.79 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Katherine Sebov | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Katherine Sebov | 6c | 1,889$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Katherine Sebov | 7c | 1,768$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Katherine Sebov | 12c | 1,346$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.63 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…d0a2backed Katherine Sebov | 6c | 1,293$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398f…30f2backed Katherine Sebov | 11c | 1,238$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Katherine Sebov | 16c | 1,220$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.06 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Katherine Sebov | 17c | 1,083$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.39 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Katherine Sebov | 9c | 1,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 536 | 44.8%240 W · 296 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Katherine Sebov | 20c | 1,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.42 | 450 | 36%162 W · 288 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f1…6e6fbacked Katherine Sebov | 9c | 978.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…d984backed Katherine Sebov | 19c | 801.79$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Katherine Sebov | 14c | 591.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Katherine Sebov | 6c | 555$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 346 | 55.2%191 W · 155 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Katherine Sebov | 22c | 549.51$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Katherine Sebov | 18c | 500$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…b93cbacked Katherine Sebov | 4c | 498.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Katherine Sebov | 12c | 495.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…739fbacked Marta Kostyuk | 79c | 433.01$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Marta Kostyuk | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 656 | 52.1%342 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Katherine Sebov | 12c | 353.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Marta Kostyuk | 80c | 353.49$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 248 | 58.5%145 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Katherine Sebov | 11c | 347.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Katherine Sebov | 14c | 346.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Katherine Sebov | 14c | 340.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…5422backed Katherine Sebov | 20c | 306.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Katherine Sebov | 7c | 252.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Katherine Sebov | 5c | 240$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa871…3932backed Katherine Sebov | 24c | 239.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Katherine Sebov | 6c | 227.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 215 | 63.3%136 W · 79 L | +18.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Katherine Sebov | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4110…0b93backed Katherine Sebov | 6c | 192.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Katherine Sebov | 6c | 190.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Marta Kostyuk | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6280…120dbacked Katherine Sebov | 18c | 140.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Katherine Sebov | 16c | 134.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Marta Kostyuk | 77c | 133.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Katherine Sebov | 16c | 114.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…055cbacked Katherine Sebov | 19c | 103.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Katherine Sebov | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 225 | 40.4%91 W · 134 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Katherine Sebov | 11c | 97.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Katherine Sebov | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 250 | 48.8%122 W · 128 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3db…c173backed Katherine Sebov | 14c | 94.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 185 | 40%74 W · 111 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Katherine Sebov | 13c | 87.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Marta Kostyuk | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1,626 | 52.7%857 W · 769 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Katherine Sebov | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Katherine Sebov | 23c | 46.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…dab4backed Marta Kostyuk | 77c | 29.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…58adbacked Marta Kostyuk | 79c | 26.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Marta Kostyuk | 80c | 24.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 789 | 57.8%456 W · 333 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45a8…5aedbacked Marta Kostyuk | 79c | 22.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +33%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Katherine Sebovthis page
- Kostyuk vs. Sebov: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs SebovKostyuk won
- Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Sebov (+1.5)Kostyuk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.