Cricket · resolved market
Big Bash League: Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Stars (Game 1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46afcbf64e052d6448c7f60ce9cf896a64e6388af70703db12186db9ad2e37b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Melbourne Starsof Adelaide Strikers, Melbourne Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Adelaide Strikers | 4c | 23,769$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.98 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Adelaide Strikers | 1c | 7,638$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 369 | 8.7%32 W · 337 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Adelaide Strikers | 27c | 4,960$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.56 | 330 | 42.4%140 W · 190 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Adelaide Strikers | 46c | 4,000$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Melbourne Stars | 61c | 2,600$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Melbourne Stars | 69c | 2,435$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.86 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Adelaide Strikers | 32c | 2,054$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.52 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Melbourne Stars | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Melbourne Stars | 55c | 1,700$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Adelaide Strikers | 26c | 1,457$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.65 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed Adelaide Strikers | 48c | 1,356$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.04 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Melbourne Stars | 54c | 1,169$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.08 | 676 | 31.4%212 W · 464 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69b…7b0cbacked Melbourne Stars | 66c | 976$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.9 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +20.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Adelaide Strikers | 49c | 808.83$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Melbourne Stars | 56c | 567.99$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.12 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Adelaide Strikers | 17c | 540.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Adelaide Strikers | 6c | 506.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 125 | 34.4%43 W · 82 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Melbourne Stars | 59c | 498.13$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.44 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…be7bbacked Adelaide Strikers | 5c | 407.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +439.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Adelaide Strikers | 8c | 325.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…a8b6backed Adelaide Strikers | 46c | 286.93$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.04 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Adelaide Strikers | 36c | 280$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Adelaide Strikers | 43c | 256.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Adelaide Strikers | 46c | 254.35$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…7d7dbacked Adelaide Strikers | 46c | 246.75$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 328 | 46.3%152 W · 176 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Adelaide Strikers | 29c | 239.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 762 | 51.6%393 W · 369 L | +29.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Adelaide Strikers | 5c | 230.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 110 | 6.4%7 W · 103 L | -18.5wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Adelaide Strikers | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 119 | 5.9%7 W · 112 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb961…0dffbacked Adelaide Strikers | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Melbourne Stars | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…f872backed Melbourne Stars | 64c | 194.47$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Melbourne Stars | 56c | 190$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf062…7eb9backed Melbourne Stars | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…b4bdbacked Melbourne Stars | 64c | 141.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Adelaide Strikers | 17c | 139.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 103 | 16.5%17 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…dec6backed Adelaide Strikers | 23c | 128.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9461…3dc5backed Melbourne Stars | 59c | 127.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Melbourne Stars | 53c | 112.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Melbourne Stars | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Adelaide Strikers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Adelaide Strikers | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c87…98b1backed Adelaide Strikers | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 11.2%12 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed Melbourne Stars | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 270 | 54.4%147 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…7068backed Adelaide Strikers | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Adelaide Strikers | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Adelaide Strikers | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Adelaide Strikers | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…0afabacked Adelaide Strikers | 46c | 88.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…4637backed Melbourne Stars | 54c | 75.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 85 | 27.1%23 W · 62 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e44…53d0backed Adelaide Strikers | 50c | 75.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…3487backed Melbourne Stars | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c39…d4c7backed Melbourne Stars | 54c | 60.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…8a4cbacked Melbourne Stars | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…dd30backed Adelaide Strikers | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad1…d674backed Melbourne Stars | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Melbourne Stars | 57c | 34.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 130 | 40.8%53 W · 77 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…cd27backed Melbourne Stars | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d8…11babacked Melbourne Stars | 63c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…2635backed Adelaide Strikers | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…9215backed Adelaide Strikers | 37c | 29.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d5…9422backed Melbourne Stars | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…0c51backed Melbourne Stars | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.