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Lol · resolved market

LoL: Disguised vs LYON - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LYONof Disguised, LYON
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,202

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x58f8…dc70backed LYON76c26,800$20,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,406.9840970.2%287 W · 122 L+30.9wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Disguised23c11,111$2,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.5331153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed LYON28c6,206$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,443.126246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed LYON56c4,458$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.4760053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf84e…6cbebacked Disguised25c4,207$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.678151.9%42 W · 39 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Disguised29c4,150$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.981,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Disguised24c3,360$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.381,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Disguised59c2,939$1,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,725.61,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Disguised53c2,645$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.391,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Disguised60c2,500$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.291,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed LYON29c1,777$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.583,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Disguised35c1,770$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.2525038%95 W · 155 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Disguised23c1,706$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.421,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed LYON41c1,630$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.831,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Disguised23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34510541.9%44 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Disguised54c1,491$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80037344%164 W · 209 L-16.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Disguised78c1,256$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.221,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Disguised25c1,120$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.561,13130.1%340 W · 791 L-26.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb404…f61bbacked Disguised58c1,046$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.563844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Disguised25c1,044$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.353640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Disguised63c1,000$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.1563161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe977…c4d7backed Disguised1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked Disguised24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24014840.5%60 W · 88 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Disguised62c965.05$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.2823751.5%122 W · 115 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked LYON75c920.72$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.222,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked LYON77c750$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.595951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Disguised32c733.86$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5585852.3%449 W · 409 L+35.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Disguised26c594$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1532,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed LYON50c545.52$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.5650643.1%218 W · 288 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd011…ac5dbacked Disguised38c537.18$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20525648.4%124 W · 132 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Disguised70c510$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3571,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Disguised25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12541644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa794…1361backed LYON24c463.01$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.0810624.5%26 W · 80 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd15e…db59backed LYON39c446.43$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.4321747%102 W · 115 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x17c9…d67abacked LYON24c443.13$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.711650%8 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+134.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked Disguised40c389.15$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.661,01349.1%497 W · 516 L+29.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked LYON77c324.68$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.681,18948.1%572 W · 617 L-2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked LYON45c309.52$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.521,45343.4%630 W · 823 L+106.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0e6…7358backed LYON76c308.6$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0626744.9%120 W · 147 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4425…12efbacked LYON38c300$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18616540.6%67 W · 98 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4e…1483backed LYON34c298.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.0630155.5%167 W · 134 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Disguised62c285$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4418241.8%76 W · 106 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Disguised37c252.19$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.991,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fd1…17ccbacked Disguised27c251.87$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6860124.1%145 W · 456 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Disguised24c249.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6056432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db6…e1babacked LYON26c224.94$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.951656.3%9 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.28per pick28cpaid+125.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Disguised40c210$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8433552.8%177 W · 158 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed LYON39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12250770%355 W · 152 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed LYON28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14484450.1%423 W · 421 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cbf…70a1backed LYON18c197.39$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+185.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed Disguised24c187.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ee…26babacked Disguised29c185.45$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.957553.3%40 W · 35 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed LYON56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5774344%327 W · 416 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c8…97b4backed LYON72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.568063.4%431 W · 249 L-16.4wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e65…b9f2backed Disguised9c148$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.036235.5%22 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c7…7203backed Disguised14c139.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0713911.5%16 W · 123 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc690…ec5bbacked LYON36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8941553.3%221 W · 194 L+1.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked LYON48c135.85$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.212,33039.4%919 W · 1,411 L-83.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed LYON58c121.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4770443.9%309 W · 395 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba4…42abbacked LYON49c102.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.175851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Disguised24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2448652.1%253 W · 233 L+2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c3c…cf9cbacked Disguised24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.41154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafda…0fccbacked Disguised75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7516654.8%91 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Disguised25c96.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.042,36440.7%963 W · 1,401 L-57.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecf0…0d38backed LYON48c93.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7510041%41 W · 59 L-8.7wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8986…b357backed Disguised63c93.71$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.812352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked Disguised36c92.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6243138.1%164 W · 267 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x382c…2261backed Disguised76c90.26$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.713350.4%67 W · 66 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-16.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed LYON77c85$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5543148%207 W · 224 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Disguised30c83.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0896347.7%459 W · 504 L+2.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed LYON76c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.245041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf4…3f9bbacked Disguised25c79.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.076139.3%24 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2091…b4f8backed Disguised25c70.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,17547.4%557 W · 618 L+42.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe82c…71c8backed Disguised58c67.65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.31850%9 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Disguised53c66.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7812042.5%51 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed LYON46c64.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2322654.4%123 W · 103 L+20.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x625a…7bb3backed LYON39c64.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.112548%60 W · 65 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6976…3185backed Disguised63c63.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.156440.6%26 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb007…7f04backed LYON34c62$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.924158.5%24 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eda…3b84backed Disguised27c61.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.574443.2%19 W · 25 L+7.9wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+72.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed LYON76c59.82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.361,24652.6%656 W · 590 L+4.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Disguised34c56.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.371,73029.5%510 W · 1,220 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9750…7956backed Disguised53c56.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017466.1%115 W · 59 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98cd…61f9backed Disguised33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96f1…b6d8backed LYON58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2138659.8%231 W · 155 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b39…294abacked LYON76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked LYON76c36.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8527447.8%131 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed LYON77c31.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.995532.7%18 W · 37 L-8.7wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked LYON70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5711950.4%60 W · 59 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ce…0a71backed Disguised73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021158.8%124 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed LYON42c23.93$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7919454.6%106 W · 88 L+0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949d…374cbacked LYON77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.521060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8948…19b7backed LYON60c18.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.334663%29 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed LYON77c14.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2379151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.